The Problem of Meridional Heat Transport in the Astronomical Climate Theory

Fedorov, V. M.

doi:10.1134/s0001433819100025

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…As such, they have displayed very little change over the past century and had very little influence on temperature changes observed over that period" (AR6, FAQ 3.2, p. 517) [1]. However, in recent years, several researchers have noted that these long-term changes also lead to subtle regional shifts in seasonality on multidecadal to centennial timescales that are not insignificant [155,[172][173][174][175] and that these shifts are also influenced by the Earth/Moon orbit [174][175][176].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

Soon,

Connolly,

Connolly

et al. 2023

Climate

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A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures (1850–2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century. Two different temperature estimates were considered—a rural and urban blend (that matches almost exactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The rural and urban blend indicates a long-term warming of 0.89 °C/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 °C/century. This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indices are relatively unaffected by urban warming biases. Three main climatic drivers were considered, following the approaches adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s recent 6th Assessment Report (AR6): two natural forcings (solar and volcanic) and the composite “all anthropogenic forcings combined” time series recommended by IPCC AR6. The volcanic time series was that recommended by IPCC AR6. Two alternative solar forcing datasets were contrasted. One was the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) time series that was recommended by IPCC AR6. The other TSI time series was apparently overlooked by IPCC AR6. It was found that altering the temperature estimate and/or the choice of solar forcing dataset resulted in very different conclusions as to the primary drivers of the observed warming. Our analysis focused on the Northern Hemispheric land component of global surface temperatures since this is the most data-rich component. It reveals that important challenges remain for the broader detection and attribution problem of global warming: (1) urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is still unclear which (if any) of the many TSI time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI; (3) the scientific community is not yet in a position to confidently establish whether the warming since 1850 is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or some combination. Suggestions for how these scientific challenges might be resolved are offered.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

Soon,

Connolly,

Connolly

et al. 2023

Climate

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“…The perturbations of the Earth's orbit around the Sun by the Moon and by the other planets also need to be considered. For this reason, there is some overlap between much of the ongoing research into short-term orbital forcing [307,[470][471][472]472,473] and the calculations within the Sun-Planetary Interactions (SPI) theories described in Section 2.5.3. However, we stress that the two fields of research are distinct.…”

Section: Comparison With Long-term Orbital Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At any rate, regardless of the role the Milankovitch orbital cycles play in the glacial/interglacial transitions, we emphasize that the changes in the latitudinal and seasonal variability of the incoming TSI over these cycles are clearly climatically important. Indeed, while much of the research until now has focused on the gradual variations over millennial timescales or longer, e.g., Huybers & Denton (2008); Davis & Brewer (2009); Berger et al (2010), in recent years, some groups have begun emphasizing the significance of "short-term orbital forcing" (STOF) (Cionco & Soon 2017), i.e., secular drifts on multidecadal to centennial timescales in the average daily insolation at different latitudinal bands for different seasons (Cionco & Soon 2017;Fedorov 2019a;Szarka et al 2021;Cionco et al , 2020Fedorov 2019b;Fedorov & Kostin 2020).…”

Section: Thismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, Davis & Brewer (2009) argued that a more climatically relevant factor is the "latitudinal insolation gradient (LIG)", which in turn "... creates the Earth's latitudinal temperature gradient (LTG) that drives the atmospheric and ocean circulation" (Davis & Brewer 2009). Note that this latter LTG concept is equivalent to the "EPTG" parameter considered by Lindzen (1994) and Soon & Legates (2013) and comparable to the "meridional heat transfer (MHT)" concept of Fedorov (2019b). Another related index is the zonal index pressure gradient, which Mazzarella & Scafetta (2018) argue is linked to the NAO, LOD and atmospheric temperatures, as well as directly influencing atmospheric circulation patterns (Mazzarella & Scafetta 2018).…”

Section: Thismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although Davis & Brewer (2009)'s focus was on timescales of millennia (Davis & Brewer 2009), Soon (2009) noted that the variability of the LIG can also be significant on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales (Soon 2009). Therefore, recent work into studying the variability of the LIG (or Fedorov (2019b)'s related "meridional insolation gradient (MIG)" (Fedorov 2019b)) on these shorter timescales (Cionco et al , 2020Fedorov 2019b;Davis & Brewer 2011) could be a particularly important "STOF" for understanding recent climate changes.…”

Section: Thismentioning

confidence: 99%

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How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

Connolly¹,

Soon²,

Connolly³

et al. 2021

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

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In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estimates are “low variability” and half are “high variability”. Meanwhile, five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring widths as temperature proxies; 5) glacier length records as temperature proxies. The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates, suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets – despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Nonetheless, all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century, i.e., there has been some “global warming” since the 19th century. For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures, the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting. The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended “anthropogenic forcings” time series. For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series, different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades (implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused) to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity (that is, that recent global warming is mostly natural). It appears that previous studies (including the most recent IPCC reports) which had prematurely concluded the former, had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates. Therefore, several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided.

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Exponential feedback effects in a parametric resonance climate model

Caccamo,

Magazù

2023

Sci Rep

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The variations in the distribution of solar radiation due to the ~ 105 years Milankovitch cycle, which is connected to the Earth eccentricity variation, cannot explain the sharp drop in temperature of 6 °C ÷ 10 °C that marks the transition from the interglacial to the glacial age registered in the last ~ 5.5 106 years temperature variation behavior. More specifically, neglecting other effects, only a temperature variation of 0.2 °C ÷ 0.3 °C can be attributed to this cycle and, therefore, positive feedback effects should be taken into account to explain the registered effect. In the present work, a comparative Wavelet-Fourier analysis of the Vostok recontructed temperature record, for which different sampling steps are taken into account, is performed. Then, a study of exponential feedback effects within a climate parametric resonance model is dealt and discussed. The obtained findings put into evidence an exponential amplification of the temperature variation from the interglacial to the glacial age supporting the hypothesis that the system energization be connected to periodic variations in the internal solar system parameters. More in details, it is shown that, following the parametric resonance climate model, even small oscillations increase over time proportionally to the system energy itself, i.e. exponentially, and hence, a series of connected resonances is able to energize the climate system.

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The Problem of Meridional Heat Transport in the Astronomical Climate Theory

Cited by 11 publications

References 16 publications

The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

Exponential feedback effects in a parametric resonance climate model

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