The Problem of Russia’s Declining Influence in the Former Soviet Union: Why Are the CIS Countries Drifting Toward Multilateralism?

Abstract

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the problem of Russiaʼs relations with the countries of the former USSR has traditionally been the focus of attention of both the academic and the expert community. This issue becomes especially urgent in the context of significant changes in world politics caused by the rapid deterioration of relations between Russia and the western world following the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. This article identifies the key economic, political and social factors having a negative impact on the current dynamics of relations between the Russian Federation and the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and thereby gradually decreasing Russiaʼs influence in the former Soviet Union.The article is structured around three groups of factors -objective, ambivalent and subjective -which impede the growth of Russiaʼs influence in the former Soviet Union. Objective factors are related to economic and political issues, ambivalent (mixed) factors are those of sociocultural and historical nature and subjective factors are predominantly psychological. Based on an extensive analysis of relevant material, the authors conclude that the CIS countries refuse to follow the pro-Russian path not only (and in some cases not so much) due to the objective need of the post-Soviet countries for diversified political, trading and economic ties, but also (and rather) for several subjective, social and cultural, political and psychological factors considered in detail below. An important conclusion of this research is that most subjective factors negatively affecting the efficiency of Russiaʼs policy in the former Soviet Union can be potentially and significantly minimized in a relatively short term. Objective factors, especially those concerning Russiaʼs declining role in the world economy and its reduced trade volumes with the CIS countries, on the contrary, are of a rather long-term nature and therefore it may take a considerable amount of time to adjust the current dynamics.

Conflict between Russia and Ukraine through the prism of quality peace theory.

“…In parallel to that, deteriorating internal political situation and lack of support from own population has also played a role in pushing Russian political establishment to look for another quick and victorious endeavor. In 2014, Russian government managed to escape a similar situation by annexing Crimea, which caused an uprising of support toward Russian government and personally Vladimir Putin, later on labeled as the “Crimean consensus” (Kuzio, 2015; Petrovich-Belkin, Bokeriya, & Yeryomin, 2019). Finally, some personnel changes have happened over these years in the government, including the rotation of those who oversaw the Ukrainian direction—Vladislav Surkov in particular, whose approach was deemed as being not proactive enough (Mackinnon & Standish, 2020).…”