The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis

Swart, Rob; Raskin, Paul; Robinson, John

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.002

Cited by 580 publications

(386 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…As Swart et al observe [30], scenario approaches are a useful framework and methodology in sustainability science, where social, economic and (semi-)natural systems interact; where integration and long term perspectives are required, where uncertainties abound; where qualitative and quantitative forms of information both have a place; and where communication with non-experts is required. A now well-known approach in scenario studies is backcasting, which entails the definition of a desirable future and then working backwards from that future to the present in order to plan how this might be achieved (pioneered in an energy context by Lovins, [31]; adopted by e.g.…”

Section: Backcastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaffolding, software and scenarios: Applying Bruner's learning theory to energy scenario development with the public

Upham

Carney

Klapper

2014

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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While there is a literature on public and stakeholder engagement in environmental research and scenario development, less attention has been given to the learning processes that take place in these contexts. We present public perceptions of emissions contraction scenarios for the UK city of Manchester and discuss this in terms of learning theory developed by Lev Vygotsky and Jerome Bruner. A key theme of this is the combination of three learning tools of use in social and individual learning: scaffolding techniques, scenario building and backcasting. We discuss the ways in which our structured scenario-building process, employing Greenhouse Gas Regional Inventory Protocol (GRIP) backcasting software, bring together these components. Following Bruner, learners are treated as scientific reasoners, but with the acknowledgement that there are also important affective and other dimensions to learning. Highlights We reflect on the learning processes of energy scenario participants  GRIP energy-emissions backcasting software was used with 4 groups of the public  The process required envisaging strong CO 2 reduction scenarios for a city region  Key to the theory is Vygotsky's concept of scaffolding, developed by Bruner AbstractWhile there is a literature on public and stakeholder engagement in environmental research and scenario development, less attention has been given to the learning processes that take place in these contexts. We present public perceptions of emissions contraction scenarios for the UK city of Manchester and discuss this in terms of learning theory developed by Lev Vygotsky and Jerome Bruner. A key theme of this is the combination of three learning tools of use in social and individual learning: scaffolding techniques, scenario building and backcasting. We discuss the ways in which our structured scenario-building process, employing Greenhouse Gas Regional Inventory Protocol (GRIP) backcasting software, bring together these components. Following Bruner, learners are treated as scientific reasoners, but with the acknowledgement that there are also important affective and other dimensions to learning.

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Section: Backcastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaffolding, software and scenarios: Applying Bruner's learning theory to energy scenario development with the public

Upham

Carney

Klapper

2014

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…Scenario analysis therefore is needed as a means of both identifying core questions regarding sustainability (Table 2) and determining priorities and solutions (Kontogianni et al, 2001(Kontogianni et al, , 2004Swart et al, 2004). This illustrates how sustainability science is complex and uncertain.…”

Section: Building Management Scenarios Towards Ecological Sustainabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of course, human population pressure is increasing directly as a result of population growth and the resultant increasing resource consumption and pollution related to the pursuit of satisfying Table 1 Environmental ideologies and sustainability perspectives (Nunneri et al, 2004;Turner et al, 2003;Turner, 2008 Table 2 Core questions for sustainability science (modified from Kates et al, 2001;Swart et al, 2004). …”

Section: Building Management Scenarios Towards Ecological Sustainabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The ecological sustainability trigon – A proposed conceptual framework for creating and testing management scenarios

Marques

Basset

Brey

et al. 2009

Marine Pollution Bulletin

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a b s t r a c tThe ability to achieve ecological sustainability and the sustainable development of marine and estuarine ecosystems constitutes a complex major challenge and depends on many driving forces, often conflicting with each other. In particular, there are three major drivers: (a) the search for human well-being, health and safety, (b) the maintenance of ecological sustainability and environmental equilibrium, and (c) the tolerance of an increasing human population pressure and demand for wealth creation.We propose here the use of a conceptual guidance tool -the ecological sustainability trigon (EST) -as a means of building and testing environmental management scenarios. Although it requires further testing, the EST allows us to (a) address those three major drivers using human society view as a common currency, and (b) describe our behaviour, energetics (economy) and dynamics through ecological theory. Moreover, the EST appears promising for gap analysis and the means to address new research questions.

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“…Scenarios can be a useful tool to support policy and guide action towards sustainability [1]. In order to do so, potential sustainability impacts of different scenarios need to be assessed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

et al. 2017

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Future scenarios are often used to address long-term challenges characterised by uncertainty and complexity, as they can help explore different alternative future pathways. Scenarios can therefore be a useful tool to support policy and guide action towards sustainability. But what sustainability aspects are put forward in scenarios and how are they assessed? This paper aims to explore how to assess future scenarios, categorised according to Börjeson et al. (Futures 38:723-739, 2006) i.e. predictive, explorative and normative scenarios. By conducting a literature review and a document analysis, we map tools and methods that are currently used to assess environmental and social sustainability aspects in scenarios. We also draw on experiences from methods for impact assessments of Swedish municipal comprehensive plans, which can be considered as future scenarios. We identify whether some sustainability aspects are less recurrent than others in the reviewed assessments or even left out. We find that there is no single tool that can be used to assess scenarios. Some quantitative tools based on databases may be more suitable for assessing scenarios within a shorter time horizon, whereas qualitative assessment methods might better fit the purpose of long-term transformative scenarios. We also find that assessment frameworks may be useful to guide the assessment, as to what its intended purpose is and which sustainability aspects to include. Finally we discuss whether further assessment tools are needed in order to include a wider array of potential environmental or social consequences of the content of scenarios.

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The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis

Cited by 580 publications

References 15 publications

Scaffolding, software and scenarios: Applying Bruner's learning theory to energy scenario development with the public

Scaffolding, software and scenarios: Applying Bruner's learning theory to energy scenario development with the public

The ecological sustainability trigon – A proposed conceptual framework for creating and testing management scenarios

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

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