The prognostic value of estimated glomerular filtration rate on admission for death within 30 days among COVID-19 inpatients using fractional polynomial and spline smoothing

Abstract

Background The common regression models included estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the continuous and categorical form for predicting the mortality in COVID-19 inpatients. However, the relationship may be non-linear, and categorizing implies a loss of information. This study aimed to assess the effect of eGFR on admission on death within 30 days among COVID-19 inpatients using flexible and smooth transformations of eGFR and compare the results against the common models. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on hospitalized COVID-19 patients between April 2019 and July 2019 in Hamadan, Western Iran. The effect of eGFR on the death within 30 days was evaluated using different modeling: categorization, linear, unrestricted cubic spline (USC) with 4 knots, and fractional polynomial (FP). The results adjusted for older age and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Discrimination power and model performance of the best-fitting model was evaluated using the area under the ROC (AUROC) and Brier score. Results In total, 2945 patients (median age 61 years; interquartile range 48–73 years) were included, of whom the mortality rate was 9.23%. The relationship between the eGFR and death within 30 days is non-linear, so the degree-2 FP with powers (− 2, − 1) is the best-fitting model. Using the FP model, the risk increased exponentially in eGFR < 45 and then increased linearly and slowly. The AUROC of the FP model involving eGFR, older age, and ICU admission was 0.92 (95% CI 0.90–0.93) with a Brier score of 0.09. Conclusion There is a non-linear and asymmetric relationship between eGFR and death within 30 days among COVID-19 inpatients. Kidney function can be measured in COCID-19 patients on admission to know better understanding about prognosis of the patients.