The quantitative risk assessment of MINI, MIDI and MAXI Horizontal Directional Drilling Projects applying Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis

Gierczak, M.

doi:10.1016/j.tust.2014.04.003

Cited by 30 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Experts assessing unwanted events probabilities often claimed that they were unable to give crisp values and preferred to use the linguistic terms, which are based on a more intuitive model, based on years of experience. The solution is applying the fuzzy sets, which allows a gradual transition between the linguistic terms used in spoken language [5]. In this paper, the linguistic terms were used to assess the probability of the individual basic events occurrence.…”

Section: The Risk Management Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It was needed to construct a membership function of a trapezoidal shape for a group of experts that would adequately capture a given linguistic term. The group of experts was asked "which elements p (probability) have the degree µA(p) of membership in a fuzzy set A" [18].The detailed description concerning how to create membership function for a group of experts was presented in previous author work [5].…”

Section: The Risk Management Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The formula (4) defines the fuzzy probability of the top event occurrence for the membership degree αjk [5]…”

Section: The Risk Management Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The probability of the top event occurrence (defuzzified value) can be obtained from the formula (5), [5]:…”

Section: The Risk Management Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Risk assessment in engineering project was a subject of many works [3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]. In [12], the benefits and various types of risks in "green building projects" connected with the market, industry, performance, as well as with legislative issues were described.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

Krechowicz¹

2017

IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng.

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SWOT analysis of the renewable energy sources in Romania -case study: solar energy A G Lupu, A Dumencu, M V Atanasiu et al. Abstract. Nowadays, one of the characteristic features of construction industry is an increased complexity of a growing number of projects. Almost each construction project is unique, has its project-specific purpose, its own project structural complexity, owner's expectations, ground conditions unique to a certain location, and its own dynamics. Failure costs and costs resulting from unforeseen problems in complex construction projects are very high. Project complexity drivers pose many vulnerabilities to a successful completion of a number of projects. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were used, on the example of the realization phase of the ENERGIS teaching-laboratory building, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. This paper suggests a new approach to risk management for complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were applied. The risk management process was divided into six stages: gathering information, identification of the top, critical project risks resulting from the project complexity, construction of the fault tree for each top, critical risks, logical analysis of the fault tree, quantitative risk assessment applying fuzzy logic and development of risk response strategy. A new methodology for the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for top, critical risks in complex construction projects was developed. Risk assessment was carried out applying Fuzzy Fault Tree analysis on the example of one top critical risk. Application of the Fuzzy sets theory to the proposed model allowed to decrease uncertainty and eliminate problems with gaining the crisp values of the basic events probability, common during expert risk assessment with the objective to give the exact risk score of each unwanted event probability.

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Section: The Risk Management Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Risk Management Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The formula (4) defines the fuzzy probability of the top event occurrence for the membership degree αjk [5]…”

Section: The Risk Management Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The probability of the top event occurrence (defuzzified value) can be obtained from the formula (5), [5]:…”

Section: The Risk Management Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

Krechowicz¹

2017

IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng.

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Fast Fault Tree Analysis for Hybrid Uncertainties Using Stochastic Logic Implemented on Field‐Programmable Gate Arrays: An Application in Quantitative Assessment and mitigation of Welding Defects Risk

Shoar

Zarandi

Nasirzadeh

et al. 2016

Quality & Reliability Eng

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This paper presents a stochastic logic-based method for quantitative risk assessment using fault tree analysis (FTA) that can take into account both types of uncertainties including objective and subjective uncertainties. In the proposed method, each fault tree gate is translated to its corresponding stochastic logic template and then is implemented on a field programmable gate array (FPGA). Because the analysis does not utilize any transformation methods, the results of analysis are more accurate than those methods which are based on transformation from possibility to probability distributions or vice versa. Experimental results for a benchmark fault tree show that this method accelerates analysis time compared to conventional hybrid uncertainty analysis method and transformation methods. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by implementation in a real steel structure project. The quantitative risk assessment is performed for the incomplete penetration as one of the defects encountered in arc welding process, and its results are compared with transformation methods. The comparison results show the proposed hybrid uncertainty analysis method is also more accurate in comparison to the transformation-based approaches.

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Fuzzy Bow-Tie Analysis: Concepts, Review, and Application

Omidvar

Zarei

Ramavandi

et al. 2022

Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing

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The quantitative risk assessment of MINI, MIDI and MAXI Horizontal Directional Drilling Projects applying Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis

Cited by 30 publications

References 6 publications

Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

Fast Fault Tree Analysis for Hybrid Uncertainties Using Stochastic Logic Implemented on Field‐Programmable Gate Arrays: An Application in Quantitative Assessment and mitigation of Welding Defects Risk

Fuzzy Bow-Tie Analysis: Concepts, Review, and Application

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