The Race for Lowest Costs of Electricity Production: Techno-Economic Analysis of Silicon, Perovskite and Tandem Solar Cells

Abstract

Approaching efficiency limits for silicon photovoltaics and impressive efficiency gains for new perovskite and perovskite silicon tandem solar cells trigger the question, which technology will be the most economically attractive option in the future. With a bottom-up approach we estimate the manufacturing costs of modules based on silicon, perovskite single junction, and perovskite silicon tandem solar cells. We determine levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) based on current costs, and because the perovskite technology is not readily available yet, project as well future LCOE considering the ongoing dynamic system cost reductions. Furthermore, we use an empirical link between perovskite single junction efficiency and resulting tandem efficiency, to estimate LCOE for both technologies for a given status of the perovskite technology. We find that if the perovskite technology matures to a level within the next 5-6 years where single junction module efficiency exceed 22% and tandem device efficiency 30% using low-cost industrial scale processes, while module lifetimes are comparable to silicon, perovskite silicon tandem devices are especially promising for residential applications, while in utility installations perovskite silicon tandems and perovskite singlejunction devices promise a cost advantage over pure silicon. LCOE reductions of 10%-20% compared to pure silicon photovoltaics are possible.

The race for the best silicon bottom cell: Efficiency and cost evaluation of perovskite–silicon tandem solar cells

“…from other authors. 6,43,47,48 Since the perovskite production is not readily available yet, we assumed an uncertainty of the perovskite costs of 30%, which is incorporated additionally to the uncertainties for the silicon bottom cell manufacturing. Including the module production costs (shown in blue), this results in $38 €/m 2 for the perovskite single-junction module production.…”

“…More details on the cost model and the assumptions for perovskite manufacturing can be found in the literature. 6,43 It can be clearly seen that the cost difference between the bottom cell concepts is significantly reduced when including the effect of the increased tandem cell efficiency at the module level. For this, we assumed glass-glass modules using the same module interconnection…”

“…application is strongly increasing, among which perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells are currently being investigated as a candidate for next generation PV devices combining low costs 5,6 and high efficiency. Recent publications have shown the potential of monolithic perovskite silicon tandem cells, surpassing the current 26.7% world record cell efficiency for single-junction c-Si solar cells 7 with a tandem efficiency of 28% certified efficiency by Oxford PV 8 ; and the current world record of 29.15% certified tandem efficiency published by Helmholtz Center Berlin.…”

Location of solar panels to the medium voltage direct current distribution network considering DC loads

“…Esto se debe a que se evitará suministrar energía proveniente de centrales convencionales con costos de producción elevados [21], [22]. Zafoschnig y Nold [23]; señalan que el costo de generación de energía solar es menor si comparamos con las fuentes de generación convencionales, para lograr disminuir aún más los costos de generación solar Zafoschnig y Nold enfatizan que se requiere de un correcto estudio y planificación en la instalación, logrando así una optimización en los recursos. Por lo tanto, la generación de energía debe ser exactamente igual a la demanda [23], [24].…”

“…Zafoschnig y Nold [23]; señalan que el costo de generación de energía solar es menor si comparamos con las fuentes de generación convencionales, para lograr disminuir aún más los costos de generación solar Zafoschnig y Nold enfatizan que se requiere de un correcto estudio y planificación en la instalación, logrando así una optimización en los recursos. Por lo tanto, la generación de energía debe ser exactamente igual a la demanda [23], [24]. Además, se debe tomar en consideración que la mayor energía solar es percibida al medio día debido a la alta radiación solar ya que existe menor atmósfera que atravesar [25].…”