The rate of sea-level rise

Cazenave, Anny; Dieng, H.; Meyssignac, Benoît; Schuckmann, Karina von; Decharme, Bertrand; Berthier, Étienne

doi:10.1038/nclimate2159

Cited by 331 publications

(202 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Significant inter-annual variations are observed within the GMSL time series (Fig. 1) -mainly attributed to ENSO -and these contribute to the GMSL trend uncertainty in addition to all sources of errors described earlier (Cazenave et al, 2014). An uncertainty envelope for the GMSL has been proposed in order to better characterize inter-annual evolutions.…”

Section: Spatial Scales Temporal Scales Altimetry Uncertainties Usermentioning

confidence: 80%

An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

Legeais

Ablain

Zawadzki

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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183

135

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Abstract. Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change since it integrates the impacts of ocean warming and ice mass loss from glaciers and the ice sheets. Sea level has been listed as an essential climate variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). During the past 25 years, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users . During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter standards were selected to produce new sea level products (called SL_cci v2.0) based on nine altimeter missions for the period 1993-2015 (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612; Legeais and the ESA SL_cci team, 2016c). Corresponding orbit solutions, geophysical corrections and altimeter standards used in this v2.0 dataset are described in detail in Quartly et al. (2017). The present paper focuses on the description of the SL_cci v2.0 ECV and associated uncertainty and discusses how it has been validated. Various approaches have been used for the quality assessment such as internal validation, comparisons with sea level records from other groups and with in situ measurements, sea level budget closure analyses and comparisons with model outputs. Compared with the previous version of the sea level ECV, we show that use of improved geophysical corrections, careful bias reduction between missions and inclusion of new altimeter missions lead to improved sea level products with reduced uncertainties on different spatial and temporal scales. However, there is still room for improvementPublished by Copernicus Publications. 282J.-F. Legeais et al.: An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA since the uncertainties remain larger than the GCOS requirements (GCOS, 2011). Perspectives on subsequent evolution are also discussed.

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Section: Spatial Scales Temporal Scales Altimetry Uncertainties Usermentioning

confidence: 80%

An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

Legeais

Ablain

Zawadzki

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

Self Cite

183

135

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“…They found small but significant trends in the sea level biases, mostly in the first 6 years (the TOPEX satellite) of the record. After correction for these biases, they estimated a corrected GMSL trend over 1993 to mid-2014 of 2.6 to 2.9±0.4 mm year −1 (dependent on the vertical land motion correction adopted), and found an acceleration of 0.041±0.058 mm year −2 , in contrast to the deceleration reported by Cazenave et al [34]. (The acceleration is not significantly different from zero, but it is significantly different from the deceleration over the same period of −0.057±0.058 mm year −2 if these bias drifts were not corrected.)…”

Section: The Satellite Altimeter Periodmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Cazenave et al [34] found a deceleration from the first to the second decade of the altimeter record, but demonstrated that there was no significant reduction of the underlying rate of sea level rise over this two-decade period if the effects of interannual climate variation on the storage of water on land (particularly in Australia; Fasullo et al [35]) and thermal expansion are excluded. Confirming the importance of interannual variability, Yi et al [36] have shown that since the La Niña event of 2010, the rate of sea level rise has been substantially larger than the 1993-2015 average as a result of a decrease of water stored on land, increased ocean thermal expansion, and faster loss of mass from the ice sheets (particularly Greenland).…”

Section: The Satellite Altimeter Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

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“…In particular, it has long been reported that nonseasonal GMSL anomalies are significantly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such that the GMSL is anomalously positive during warm El Niño phases and anomalously negative during cool La Niña phases (Nerem et al, 1999(Nerem et al, , 2010Chambers et al, 2002;Ngo-Duc et al, 2005;Landerer et al, 2008;Merrifield et al, 2009;Llovel et al, 2010Llovel et al, , 2011Boening et al, 2012;Cazenave et al, 2012Cazenave et al, , 2014Meyssignac and Cazenave, 2012;Stammer et al, 2013;Fasullo et al, 2013;Haddad et al, 2013;Meyssignac et al, 2013;Calafat et al, 2014;Dieng et al, 2014Dieng et al, , 2015Pugh and Woodworth, 2014). Recent papers argue that ENSO-related GMSL changes are essentially of barystatic origin, related to changes in the hydrological cycle, and patterns of precipitation and evaporation (Llovel et al, 2011;Boening et al, 2012;Cazenave et al, 2012Cazenave et al, , 2014Fasullo et al, 2013). However, these papers are based on either observations during an isolated event or correlation analysis of model output, and the extent to which barystatic or steric effects are responsible for ENSO-related GMSL fluctuations more generally has not been firmly established based on observations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño, La Niña, and the global sea level budget

Piecuch

Quinn

2016

Ocean Sci.

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Abstract. Previous studies show that nonseasonal variations in global-mean sea level (GMSL) are significantly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, it has remained unclear to what extent these ENSO-related GMSL fluctuations correspond to steric (i.e., density) or barystatic (mass) effects. Here we diagnose the GMSL budget for ENSO events observationally using data from profiling floats, satellite gravimetry, and radar altimetry during 2005-2015. Steric and barystatic effects make comparable contributions to the GMSL budget during ENSO, in contrast to previous interpretations based largely on hydrological models, which emphasize the barystatic component. The steric contributions reflect changes in global ocean heat content, centered on the Pacific. Distributions of ocean heat storage in the Pacific arise from a mix of diabatic and adiabatic effects. Results have implications for understanding the surface warming slowdown and demonstrate the usefulness of the Global Ocean Observing System for constraining Earth's hydrological cycle and radiation imbalance.

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The rate of sea-level rise

Cited by 331 publications

References 29 publications

An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

El Niño, La Niña, and the global sea level budget

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