The ratio of mesoscale convective system precipitation to total precipitation increases in future climate change scenarios

Haberlie, Alex M.; Ashley, Walker S.; Gensini, Victor A.; Michaelis, Allison C.

doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00481-5

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…For instance, Haberlie et al. 's (2023) dynamical downscaling of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios from the Community Earth System Model showed different changes in regional annual MCS precipitation between the two scenarios.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A linear relationship between the magnitude of the changes in MCS and emissions is probable when using the PGW approach, but it might not be the case when directly downscaling the future simulations. For instance, Haberlie et al's (2023) dynamical downscaling of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios from the Community Earth System Model showed different changes in regional annual MCS precipitation between the two scenarios.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in Mesoscale Convective System Precipitation Structures in Response to a Warming Climate

Cui,

Galarneau,

Hoogewind

2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are crucial components of the hydrological cycle and often produce flash floods. Given their impact, it is important to understand how they will change under a warming climate. This study uses a satellite‐ and radar‐based MCS tracking algorithm on convection‐permitting climate model simulations and examines changes in MCS properties and precipitation structures between historical and future simulations. An underestimation in MCS total precipitation is evident in historical simulation compared to observations, due to model's depiction of MCS precipitation area and summertime occurrence frequency. Under pseudo‐global warming, increases in MCS frequency and total warm season precipitation are observed, most notably in the southern U.S. The precipitation intensity and precipitating area generated by future MCSs also rises and results in an increase in precipitation volume. MCS precipitation structures are further classified into convective core and stratiform regions to understand how change in these structures contributes to future rainfall changes. In a warmer climate, the stratiform region demonstrates minimal change in size, but increases in mean precipitation rate and mean maximum precipitation rate by 15% and 29% are noted, respectively. A more robust future response is observed in the convective core region, with its size, mean precipitation rate and mean maximum precipitation rate increasing significantly by 24%, 37% and 42%, respectively. Finally, by examining the environmental properties of MCS initial condition, future intensification of convective rain may be attributed to a combined effect of substantial increases in atmospheric instability and moisture availability.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Mesoscale Convective System Precipitation Structures in Response to a Warming Climate

Cui,

Galarneau,

Hoogewind

2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Increasing frequency and precipitation intensity of convective storms in the Peruvian Central Andes: Projections from convection‐permitting regional climate simulations

Huang,

Xue,

et al. 2024

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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To explore the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Peruvian Central Andes, a region with complex terrain, two future convection‐permitting regional climate simulations and one historical one are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. All simulations adopt consistent model configurations and two nested domains with grid spacings of 15 and 3 km covering the entire South America and the Peruvian Central Andes, respectively. The historical run, spanning 2014–2019, is driven by ERA5 reanalysis, and the future simulations, covering the period 2070–2080, are driven by a bias‐corrected global dataset derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 emission scenarios. Results show geographically dependent changes in annual precipitation, with a consistent rise in the frequency of intense hourly precipitation across all regions examined. The western Amazon Basin shows a decrease in annual precipitation, while increases exist in parts of the Peruvian west coast and the east slope of the Andes under both future scenarios. In the warming scenarios, there is an overall increase in the frequency, precipitation intensity, and size of MCSs east of the Andes, with MCS precipitation volume increasing by up to ∼22.2%. Despite consistently enhanced synoptic‐scale low‐level jets in future scenarios, changes in low‐level dynamic convergence are inhomogeneous and predominantly influence annual precipitation changes. The increased convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and precipitable water (PW) in a warming climate suppress weak convection, while fostering a more unstable and moisture‐rich atmosphere, facilitating more intense convection and the formation and intensification of heavy precipitation‐producing MCSs. The study highlights the value of convection‐permitting climate simulations in projecting future severe weather hazards and informing climate adaptation strategies, especially in regions characterized by complex terrain.

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Mesoscale convective system activity in the United States under intermediate and extreme climate change scenarios

Haberlie,

Wallace,

Ashley

et al. 2024

Climatic Change

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The ratio of mesoscale convective system precipitation to total precipitation increases in future climate change scenarios

Cited by 4 publications

References 32 publications

Changes in Mesoscale Convective System Precipitation Structures in Response to a Warming Climate

Changes in Mesoscale Convective System Precipitation Structures in Response to a Warming Climate

Increasing frequency and precipitation intensity of convective storms in the Peruvian Central Andes: Projections from convection‐permitting regional climate simulations

Mesoscale convective system activity in the United States under intermediate and extreme climate change scenarios

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