The real holes in climate science

Schiermeier, Quirin

doi:10.1038/463284a

Cited by 122 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The climatic elements of air temperature and precipitation are the decisive factors for relevant extreme weather events, wherefore the respective climate change signals as well as the robustness of the directions of change are characterized and discussed first. All analyses presented in this paper may involve a considerable degree of uncertainty, mainly because the underlying RCMs possess only limited validity-in particular in the complex topography of Alpine regions [15,32,33], where small-scale orographic conditions and related influences on weather dynamics cannot be fully reproduced. This aspect must be considered in drawing conclusions based on the provided results.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing Climate—Assessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria

Kellermann

Bubeck

Kundela³

et al. 2016

Climate

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Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, and-if needed-to adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing Climate—Assessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria

Kellermann

Bubeck

Kundela³

et al. 2016

Climate

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“…Recently accumulated evidence directly documents air flows induced by the phase transitions of water vapor (Chikoore and Jury, 2010). Other implications are likely to be important in predicting the global and local nature of climate change -a subject of considerable concern and debate at the present time (Pielke et al, 2009;Schiermeier, 2010).…”

Section: A M Makarieva Et Al: Condensation-induced Atmospheric Dynmentioning

confidence: 99%

Where do winds come from? A new theory on how water vapor condensation influences atmospheric pressure and dynamics

et al. 2013

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Abstract. Phase transitions of atmospheric water play a ubiquitous role in the Earth's climate system, but their direct impact on atmospheric dynamics has escaped wide attention. Here we examine and advance a theory as to how condensation influences atmospheric pressure through the mass removal of water from the gas phase with a simultaneous account of the latent heat release. Building from fundamental physical principles we show that condensation is associated with a decline in air pressure in the lower atmosphere. This decline occurs up to a certain height, which ranges from 3 to 4 km for surface temperatures from 10 to 30 • C. We then estimate the horizontal pressure differences associated with water vapor condensation and find that these are comparable in magnitude with the pressure differences driving observed circulation patterns. The water vapor delivered to the atmosphere via evaporation represents a store of potential energy available to accelerate air and thus drive winds. Our estimates suggest that the global mean power at which this potential energy is released by condensation is around one per cent of the global solar power -this is similar to the known stationary dissipative power of general atmospheric circulation. We conclude that condensation and evaporation merit attention as major, if previously overlooked, factors in driving atmospheric dynamics.

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“…This finding underscores the need for reducing and understanding the uncertainties of the modelling chain. Large uncertainties are associated with all the steps of the chain (from emission scenarios through GCMs, RCMs, bias corrections and scaling to subbasins to the hydrological modelling) and increasing the spatial resolution though regional downscaling can magnify inherent weaknesses of the used GCM (Schiermeier, 2010). Although the RCA3 simulations on the Southern African scale showed satisfactory results both for temperature and precipitation as compared to available observations it is obvious that when a smaller region as the Pungwe basin is Fig.…”

Section: Discussion-lessons Learned and Consequences For Water Resourmentioning

confidence: 87%

Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin

Andersson¹,

Samuelsson²,

KjellstrÃ¶m³

2011

TELLUSA

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A B S T R A C T The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA3) and the hydrological model HBV were linked to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the Pungwe basin until 2050. RCA3 was capable of simulating the most important aspects of the climate for a control period at the regional scale. At the subbasin scale, additional scaling was needed. Three climate change experiments using ECHAM4-A2, B2 and CCSM3-B2 as input to RCA3 were carried out. According to the simulations annual rainfall in 2050 would be reduced by approximately 10% with increasing interannual variability of rainfall and dry season river flow and later onset of the rainy season. The ECHAM4-A2 driven experiment did also indicate a slight increase of high flows. If the results indeed reflect the future, they will worsen the already critical situation for water resources, regarding both floods and droughts. Uncertainties, however in the downscaled scenarios make it difficult to prioritize adaptation options. This calls for inclusion of more climate change experiments, in an ensemble of climate scenarios possibly by using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling of general circulation models, as well as extending the simulations to 2100 to further ensure robustness of the signal.

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The real holes in climate science

Cited by 122 publications

References 5 publications

Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing Climate—Assessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria

Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing Climate—Assessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria

Where do winds come from? A new theory on how water vapor condensation influences atmospheric pressure and dynamics

Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin

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