The relationship between cultural tightness–looseness and COVID-19 cases and deaths: a global analysis

Abstract

Background The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis, yet certain countries have had far more success in limiting COVID-19 cases and deaths. We suggest that collective threats require a tremendous amount of coordination, and that strict adherence to social norms is a key mechanism that enables groups to do so. Here we examine how the strength of social norms—or cultural tightness–looseness—was associated with countries' success in limiting cases and deaths by October, 2020. We expected that tight cultures, which have strict norms and punishments for deviance, would have fewer cases and deaths per million as compared with loose cultures, which have weaker norms and are more permissive. Methods We estimated the relationship between cultural tightness–looseness and COVID-19 case and mortality rates as of Oct 16, 2020, using ordinary least squares regression. We fit a series of stepwise models to capture whether cultural tightness–looseness explained variation in case and death rates controlling for under-reporting, demographics, geopolitical factors, other cultural dimensions, and climate. Findings The results indicated that, compared with nations with high levels of cultural tightness, nations with high levels of cultural looseness are estimated to have had 4·99 times the number of cases (7132 per million vs 1428 per million, respectively) and 8·71 times the number of deaths (183 per million vs 21 per million, respectively), taking into account a number of controls. A formal evolutionary game theoretic model suggested that tight groups cooperate much faster under threat and have higher survival rates than loose groups. The results suggest that tightening social norms might confer an evolutionary advantage in times of collective threat. Interpretation Nations that are tight and abide by strict norms have had more success than those that are looser as of the October, 2020. New interventions are needed to help countries tighten social norms as they continue to battle COVID-19 and other collective threats. Funding Office of Naval Research, US Navy.

Noncompliance With Safety Guidelines as a Free-Riding Strategy: An Evolutionary Game-Theoretic Approach to Cooperation During the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…The COVID-19 situation, however, demonstrates some necessity for heavy sanctions, particularly when social norms promoting voluntary cooperation are lacking. Noncompliance appears more severe in countries with highly individualistic orientations and low obedience to authoritywhere outright defiance against mask wearing and other health safety directives is not uncommon -compared to countries with high levels of collectivistic orientation and authority deference (Tan and Li, 2020;Gelfand et al, 2021). As it is easier to mobilize collective effort when people care about the public good and are willing to work together under the instruction of the authorities, norms that promote concern for relational harmony and social obligations coupled with willingness to abide by government regulations may be most effective in eliciting compliance.…”

Compliance and Self-Reporting during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Cultural Study of Trust and Self-Conscious Emotions in the United States, Italy and South Korea

“…Groups may tighten their norms when confronting ecological threats such as outbreaks of diseases (Gelfand et al, 2011;Gelfand et al, 2017). Tighter norms are beneficial because they foster group coordination, sustaining collective efforts (Gelfand et al, 2021). However, tighter norms may also encourage the stigmatization of those perceived as undermining them.…”

Multivariate spatio-temporal analysis of the global COVID-19 pandemic

“…The approach is incredibly fast computationally and easily highlights important and interpretable trends in complex and potentially very noisy spatio-temporal data. These can then formally assist with policy decisions in relation to when and where interventions appear to be working 26 and when they are not, which 2 linked to cultural tightness. The emergence of significant changes in dynamics can also trigger further epidemiological and genetic studies to detect viral mutations that may be associated with or causing the changing dynamics.…”

“…Whilst the virus knows nothing of the political boundaries of geographical regions, the interventions taken to hinder the virus' progression have varied significantly across countries and adherence to these interventions can vary drastically depending on. 2 Understanding the important similarities in the dynamics of the pandemic across both space and time is therefore of huge importance in aiding successful policy interventions.…”