The relationship between pay day and violent death in Guatemala: a time series analysis

Abstract

Objective To assess if violent deaths were associated with pay days in Guatemala. Design Interrupted time series analysis. Setting Guatemalan national autopsy databases. Participants Daily violence-related autopsy data for 22 418 decedents from 2009 to 2012. Data were provided by the Guatemalan National Institute of Forensic Sciences. Multiple pay-day lags and other important days such as holidays were tested. Outcome measures Absolute and relative estimates of excess violent deaths on pay days and holidays. Results The occurrence of violent deaths was not associated with pay days. However, a significant association was observed for national holidays, and this association was more pronounced when national holidays and pay days occurred simultaneously. This effect was observed mainly in males, who constituted the vast majority of violent deaths in Guatemala. An estimated 112 (coefficient=3.12; 95% CI 2.15 to 4.08; p<0.01) more male violent deaths occurred on holidays than were expected. An estimated 121 (coefficient=4.64; 95% CI 3.41 to 5.88; p<0.01) more male violent deaths than expected occurred on holidays that coincided with the first 2 days following a pay day. Conclusions Men in Guatemala experience violent deaths at an elevated rate when pay days coincide with national holidays. Efforts to be better prepared for violence during national holidays and to prevent violent deaths by rescheduling pay days when these days co-occur with national holidays should be considered.

Applying the Haddon matrix conceptual model to guide motor vehicle crash injury research and prevention in Botswana

“…Participants raised concern that the timing of paydays in Botswana could encourage drunk driving because most paydays occur around the same time of the month resulting in large numbers of workers that drink excessively within a short period of time, thereby increasing the risk of crashes. This finding is supported by reports in Guatemala which showed that drunk driving-related crashes spiked on days when paydays coincided with a holiday [ 16 ]. The participants suggested that further research is needed about drunk driving prevention and the specific risks that emerge during mini-weekends around pay days.…”

Head trauma: A significant public health concern among young men in Botswana. Etiology referral patterns and opportunities for interventions

“…A recent study in Guatemala found a cyclic time trend in violence related deaths and paydays coinciding with public holidays. 15 In Reunion Island a similar trend was found for alcohol related violence. 16…”

It’s About Time

“…This strand of research focuses on what these temporal patterns look like at different temporal scales and how to explain them. So far, most previous studies have focused on the description of seasonality trends (e.g., Andresen & Malleson, 2013;Ceccato, 2005;Linning, Andresen & Brantingham, 2017) or fluctuations in overall crime rates by month of the year (e.g., Ramírez et al, 2016), day of the week (e.g., Johnson, Bowers & Pease, 2012;Wheeler, 2016), time of the day (e.g., Felson & Poulsen, 2003;Irvin-Erickson & La Vigne, 2015;Montoya, Junger & Ongena, 2014;Sagovsky & Johnson, 2007) or a combination of these temporal cycles (e.g., Ceccato & Uittenbogaard, 2014;Glasner & Leitner, 2016;Van Koppen & Jansen, 1999).…”