The Relationship between Population Dynamics and Urban Hierarchy

Abstract

Spatial planners often make “comprehensive” decisions on the location of public service facilities by using the concept of urban hierarchy: population centers at the upper level of the hierarchy (typically large cities) get the highest level facilities, such as specialized hospitals and universities, while the centers at the lower levels of hierarchy get lower-level facilities. Intuitively, this suggests that there should be a link between urban hierarchy designations and population dynamics in future periods. This link must be taken into account in planning decisions, as it suggests that today’s decisions affect tomorrow’s demand for services. Indeed, this link was assumed in a previously published planning model. Yet, no direct evidence of such a link appears in the literature. The primary goal of this article is to fill this gap by using the census data for Portugal for the period 1991–2001 and the changes in the urban hierarchy that were implemented during 1980s and early 1990s. While our results support the link between urban hierarchy designations and population dynamics that has been assumed in previously published work, the mechanism describing this link appears to be somewhat different from the one postulated previously. Several extensions and directions for future work are also discussed.

Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Portuguese Regional Fertility Rates: A Bayesian Approach for Spatial Clustering of Curves

“…This is very important for estimation of fertility rates in extreme age groups, which are sensitive to small changes and subject of various types of distortions. Bigotte et al (2014) studied the relationship between population dynamics and the hierarchy of urban centers in Portugal, using geographical contiguity to measure diffusion. However, as discussed above, such reliance on geography as the sole driver of spatial spillovers and concentration is not adequate for demographic variables subject to spatial diffusion.…”

Connections between research and policy: The case of fertility diffusion and regional demographic policy in Portugal

“…Thus, modelling and estimation of fertility rates should aim to use shrinkage methods, borrowing strength from spatially related regions, consecutive years and relevant age groups. Bigotte et al (2014) studied the relationship between population dynamics and the hierarchy of urban centres in Portugal, using geographical contiguity to measure diffusion. Such reliance on geography as the sole driver is not adequate for fertility diffusion.…”

The Urban Public Space between Land and Sea: The Case of Quarteira, Portugal

“…Flooding and erosion, fostered by extreme weather events caused by rising sea levels, are already affecting European coasts. Among the European coastal territories most vulnerable to the effects of the rise in average sea level are the 943 km of Portuguese coastline where about 70% of the population lives [1], a percentage that rises to about 80 per cent in the summer months, thanks to the phenomenon of tourism [2], especially in the Algarve region (southern Portugal). Indeed, the flooding and erosion phenomena, due to sea level rise (SLR), are particularly strong along the Portuguese coast, due to the strength of the ocean currents which Portugal faces, especially when they combine with winds from the SW [3].…”