The relationship between precipitation and insurance data for floods in a Mediterranean region (northeast Spain)

Abstract

Abstract. Floods in the Mediterranean region are often surface water floods, in which intense precipitation is usually the main driver. Determining the link between the causes and impacts of floods can make it easier to calculate the level of flood risk. However, up until now, the limitations in quantitative observations for flood-related damages have been a major obstacle when attempting to analyse flood risk in the Mediterranean. Flood-related insurance damage claims for the last 20 years could provide a proxy for flood impact, and this information is now available in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia, in northeast Spain. This means a comprehensive analysis of the links between flood drivers and impacts is now possible. The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate flood damages from heavy precipitation in a Mediterranean region. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation. The relationship between precipitation and damage provides insights into flood risk in the Mediterranean and is also promising for supporting flood management strategies.

Changes in flood damage with global warming on the eastern coast of Spain

“…The decrease becomes larger with higher levels of global warming. This pattern is also observable in other studies of the Mediterranean region (Jacob et al, 2014;Cramer et al, 2018;Sillmann et al, 2013;Rajczak and Schär, 2017;Turco et al, 2017). For example, Kjellström et al (2018) found an increase in mean precipitation in the north of Europe but a reduction in the south, especially during summer months.…”

“…In the last few years, much research has focused on the study of climate change in the Mediterranean region, an area that is identified as highly vulnerable to climate change according to the "Fifth Assessment Report" of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014). Some studies have found an increase in precipitation extremes with global warming projections in the Mediterranean region (Colmet-Daage et al, 2018;Drobinski et al, 2018), although a general decrease in the annual precipitation is projected (Jacob et al, 2014;Cramer et al, 2018;Sillmann et al, 2013;Rajczak and Schär, 2017). Cramer et al (2018) state that future warming in the Mediterranean region is expected to exceed the global mean rates by 25 %, with peaks of 40 % in summer.…”

“…Some studies have found an increase in precipitation extremes with global warming projections in the Mediterranean region (Colmet-Daage et al, 2018;Drobinski et al, 2018), although a general decrease in the annual precipitation is projected (Jacob et al, 2014;Cramer et al, 2018;Sillmann et al, 2013;Rajczak and Schär, 2017). Cramer et al (2018) state that future warming in the Mediterranean region is expected to exceed the global mean rates by 25 %, with peaks of 40 % in summer. As a result, flood risk associated with extreme precipitation events is expected to increase due to climate change in this area but also due to non-climatic factors such as increasingly sealed surfaces in urban areas and ill-conceived storm-water management systems (Cramer et al, 2018).…”

“…Cramer et al (2018) state that future warming in the Mediterranean region is expected to exceed the global mean rates by 25 %, with peaks of 40 % in summer. As a result, flood risk associated with extreme precipitation events is expected to increase due to climate change in this area but also due to non-climatic factors such as increasingly sealed surfaces in urban areas and ill-conceived storm-water management systems (Cramer et al, 2018).…”

Characterizing precipitation events leading to surface water flood damage over large regions of complex terrain

“…Hurford et al [33] evaluated the return periods of rainfall thresholds that are used for warnings by linking rainfall intensities with observed SWFs using data from fire and rescue services. Cortès et al [34] analyzed the relationship between flood-related insurance claims and heavy precipitation at the postal code level using daily precipitation accumulations. However, this study did not differentiate between FFs and SWFs.…”