The Relationship Between South Pacific Atmospheric Internal Variability and ENSO in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Phase‐II Models

You, Yujia; Furtado, Jason C.

doi:10.1029/2019gl084637

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…The SSTAs in the SEP region can favor SSTAs development in the equatorial eastern Pacific and may lead to different flavors of El Niño (Min et al, 2017; Zhang et al, 2014). In addition, the key influence of SEP atmospheric variability with regard to ENSO predictions has also been confirmed in very recent studies (You & Furtado, 2018, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 63%

“…On the other hand, some other studies have highlighted that the southeastern Pacific (SEP) region is important to ENSO predictions (Ding et al, 2015; Imada et al, 2015; Min et al, 2015, 2017; Su et al, 2014; You & Furtado, 2018, 2019; Zhang et al, 2014). For example, the cooling sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the SEP played a key role in hindering the development of the 2014 El Niño (Min et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Southeastern Pacific Error Leads to Failed El Niño Forecasts

Hua

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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In El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamical predictions, the ensemble members may show a large spread, leading to low prediction accuracy. The reasons for unreasonable forecast spreads in dynamical predictions are investigated based on hindcast/forecast results from the North American Multimodel Ensemble system. A category of failed‐forecasting members is defined if a negative Niño34 index in winter is forecasted by one member for the observed El Niño events. Compared with reasonable‐forecasting members, the failed‐forecasting members show significant cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the southeastern Pacific (SEP). Such cold SSTAs can be traced back to the initial cold error in the SEP region. The initial cold error can be enhanced by positive feedback near the SEP region and further hinder warm SSTAs in equatorial regions, leading to a failed prediction. This result highlights the essential role of the SEP region, providing possible contributions to enhance the ENSO forecast skill.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 63%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southeastern Pacific Error Leads to Failed El Niño Forecasts

Hua

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Mutual influences between ENSO and its two precursor modes in the extratropical South Pacific

Li,

Ding,

Tseng

et al. 2024

Clim Dyn

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The Contribution of Boreal Spring South Pacific Atmospheric Variability to El Niño Occurrence

Min

Zhang

2020

Journal of Climate

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Despite the fact that great efforts have been made to improve the prediction of El Niño events, it remains challenging because of limited understanding of El Niño and its precursors. This research focuses on the influence of South Pacific atmospheric variability on the development of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific. It is found that as early as in the boreal spring of El Niño years, the sea level pressure anomaly (SLPA) shows a configuration characterized by two significant negative anomaly centers in the north and a positive anomaly center in the south between the subtropics and high latitudes in South Pacific. Such anomalous SLPA pattern becomes stronger in the following late boreal spring and summer associated with the strengthening of westerly anomalies in the tropical Pacific, weakening the southeasterly trade winds and promoting the warming of tropical eastern Pacific, which is conductive to the development of El Niño events. It is demonstrated that the SLPA pattern in boreal spring revealed in this study is closely associated with boreal summer South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) and South Pacific meridional mode (SPMM). As a precursor in boreal spring, the prediction skill of South Pacific SLPA in boreal spring for the SSTA in eastern equatorial Pacific is better than that of SPMM. This study is helpful to deepen our understanding of the contribution of South Pacific extratropical atmospheric variability to the El Niño occurrence.

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The Relationship Between South Pacific Atmospheric Internal Variability and ENSO in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Phase‐II Models

Cited by 3 publications

References 50 publications

Southeastern Pacific Error Leads to Failed El Niño Forecasts

Southeastern Pacific Error Leads to Failed El Niño Forecasts

Mutual influences between ENSO and its two precursor modes in the extratropical South Pacific

The Contribution of Boreal Spring South Pacific Atmospheric Variability to El Niño Occurrence

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