The relationship between teleconnections, surface temperature, and cold air outbreaks

Abstract

Cold air outbreaks (CAOs) are extreme events that can negatively impact the agricultural industry, human health, and cause widespread power outages from increased energy consumption. Increasing the predictability of CAOs is critical to limiting the adverse impacts on society, but skilful predictions rely on well‐defined mechanisms of causation. To improve the understanding of CAO mechanisms, this study examines the relationship between atmospheric and oceanic teleconnection indices and CAOs in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during two distinct periods, 1979–1998 and 1999–2018. Changes in the relationship between CAOs and teleconnections during these two periods are calculated and used to determine the teleconnections that currently have the strongest relationship with CAOs across the NH. Several relationships were found to no longer be significant while several other significant relationships have emerged, particularly with the Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern. Furthermore, upstream teleconnections, as opposed to downstream teleconnections, were generally found to have a stronger relationship with CAOs. The East Pacific Oscillation and East Pacific/North Pacific pattern were found to have the strongest relationship with CAOs in the eastern U.S. and Alaska, while the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Greenland Blocking Index, and Scandinavian pattern have the strongest relationship with CAOs in Eurasia.

Marine Cold‐Air Outbreak Snowfall in the North Atlantic: A CloudSat Perspective

“…North Atlantic MCAOs are often found in the cold sector of cyclones (e.g., Afargan‐Gerstman et al., 2020; Fletcher et al., 2016a; Kolstad et al., 2009; Papritz & Grams, 2018) and in association with polar lows which can cause severe weather (e.g., Abel et al., 2017; Kolstad et al., 2009; Landgren et al., 2019; Shapiro et al., 1987; Terpstra et al., 2021). On longer timescales, persistent anticyclonic blocking in the North Atlantic, that is found to inundate the Greenland Ice Sheet with precipitation (Papritz & Grams, 2018; Pettersen et al., 2022), simultaneously forces cold air equatorward on its eastward flank, initiating MCAOs impacting Europe (e.g., Papritz & Grams, 2018; Smith & Sheridan, 2021; Terpstra et al., 2021).…”

Investigation of the trigger perturbation for a simulated case of arctic oscillation transition using initial‐condition perturbation denial experiments

“…The state of the AO is of practical importance because it is a strong differentiator of the synoptic‐scale polar and midlatitude weather. For example, the +AO corresponds to greater storm track variability and more frequent strong wind events in the mid‐ to high‐latitudes (e.g., Thompson and Wallace, 2001), while the −AO is associated with extreme cold air outbreaks (e.g., Smith and Sheridan, 2020), “warm‐Arctic cold‐continent” episodes (e.g., Overland et al ., 2011), as well as blocking events (e.g., Faranda et al ., 2016).…”