The relationships between Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures and Colombian streamflow variability

Tootle, Glenn A.; Piechota, Thomas C.; Gutiérrez, Felipe

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.10.058

Cited by 53 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Previously Poveda and Mesa (1997) used a principal component analysis to show that the pattern associated with EN phenomenon is strongly linked with the hydro-climatology in Colombia. Similarly, Tootle et al (2008), using the SVD between the streamflows series of several major rivers of the country and the SST of Pacific Ocean, Pacific and Atlantic (together), and Atlantic Ocean separately, concluded that the first variability mode of SST, both in the Pacific and in the Pacific / Atlantic, reflect the ENSO variability and are significantly related with the streamflows. However, these authors did not refer to the influence that the second variability mode of tropical Pacific (ENM) could have on the country.…”

Section: O N C L U D I N G R E M a R K Smentioning

confidence: 97%

“…For Colombia, several studies have shown the strong influence that the SST of tropical Pacific associated with El Niño/La Niña (EN/LN) exerts over hydro-climatic variables such as precipitation, streamflow or temperature (Tootle et al 2008;Poveda et al 2011;Gutiérrez and Dracup 2001;Pabón and Montealegre, 1992). However, only a few studies quantify the influence of ENM on the climate of this country and analyze its predictive skill.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Influence of tropical Pacific SST on seasonal precipitation in Colombia: prediction using El Niño and El Niño Modoki

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper the forecast skill provided by the tropical Pacific SST associated with El Niño and El Niño Modoki over seasonal precipitation (Pt) in Colombia has been evaluated through a lagged Singular Value Decomposition analysis. This analysis has been made based on the results in a companion paper where the impact of El Niño and El Niño Modoki over the seasonal precipitation in Colombia was analyzed and quantified. The seasonal rainfall in many parts of the country can be predicted with good skill using the SST with a lead of one to four seasons. Winter presents the best results for the prediction model, explaining the greatest percentage of square covariance fraction between the SST and lagged precipitation anomalies. The predictive capacity of these variability modes of SST for rainfall in Colombia is comparable or even higher in some seasons, particularly in winter, that the ability of these modes to explain the behavior of the precipitation during coetaneous seasons. The forecast of seasonal precipitation in Colombia validated in this work could be useful for planning and managing natural water resources in this country. K eywords: Seasonal precipitation forecast, Tropical Pacific SST, El Niño, El Niño Modoki, Colombia. R ESU M E NEn este estudio se evalúa la capacidad de predicción que posee la SST del Pacífico tropical asociada con los fenómenos El Niño y El Niño Modoki sobre la precipitación (Pt) estacional en Colombia, a través del Análisis de Descomposición del Valor Singular. Este análisis está soportado en los resultados obtenidos en un artículo complementario donde ha sido analizado y cuantificado el impacto de El Niño y El Niño Modoki sobre la precipitación estacional en Colombia. La variabilidad de la Pt estacional en muchos lugares del país se puede predecir con una buena habilidad usando la SST desde una y hasta cuatro estaciones anteriores. Para la estación de invierno se explica el mayor porcentaje de la fracción de covarianza cuadrada entre las anomalías de la SST de estaciones anteriores y las anomalías de Pt. Además, en esta estación se obtienen los mejores resultados del modelo de predicción. La capacidad predictiva de los dos primeros modos de la SST sobre la Pt en Colombia es comparable o mayor en algunas estaciones, que la habilidad que tienen estos modos para explicar la variabilidad de la Pt durante estaciones coetáneas, principalmente para la estación de invierno. La predicción estacional de la Pt, desarrollada en este estudio podría ser de utilidad para la planificación y el manejo de los recurso naturales en el país. Palabras C laves: Predicción estacional, precipitación, SST del Pacífico Tropical, El Niño, El Niño Modoki, Colombia.

show abstract

Section: O N C L U D I N G R E M a R K Smentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of tropical Pacific SST on seasonal precipitation in Colombia: prediction using El Niño and El Niño Modoki

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Bretherton et al (1992) concluded that the singular value decomposition (SVD) approach was simple to use and preferable for general use, while Wallace et al (1992) found that SVD was a powerful technique that isolates the most important modes of variability. Various studies have used SVD to evaluate sea-surface temperature (SST) and hydrological variability (Uvo et al 1998, Enfield and Alfaro 2000, Giannini et al 2000, Wang and Ting 2000, Rajagopalan et al 2000, Rodriguez-Fonseca and de Castro 2002, Martin et al 2004, Shabbar and Skinner 2004, Tootle et al 2008, Aziz et al 2010. These studies investigated SST and hydrological (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures and regional streamflow variability in the Adour-Garonne basin, France

Oubeidillah

Tootle

Anderson

2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The identification of Atlantic Ocean (AO) climatic drivers may prove valuable in long lead-time forecasting of streamflow in the Adour-Garonne basin in southwestern France. Previous studies have identified the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as drivers of European hydrology. The current research applied the singular value decomposition (SVD) statistical method to AO sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) to identify the primary AO climatic drivers of the Adour-Garonne basin streamflow. Annual and seasonal streamflow volumes were selected as the hydrological response, while average AO SSTs were calculated for three different 6-month averages (January-June, April-September and July-December) for the year preceding streamflow. The results identified a region along the Equator as the probable driver of the basin streamflow. Additional analysis evaluated the influence of the AMO and NAO on Adour-Garonne basin streamflow.

show abstract

“…A variabilidade climática oceano-atmosférica e a SST podem fornecer informações preditivas importantes sobre a variabilidade hidrológica nas regiões ao redor do mundo (Tootle et al, 2008). O entendimento físico de como fenômenos climáticos remotos (de larga escala) influenciam na variabilidade das vazões é fundamental para a construção dos modelos estatísticos que irão incorporar as informações meteorológicas.…”

Section: Uso De Informação Meteorológica Em Previsões De Vazãounclassified

“…Para aplicações em maiores escalas temporais, sugerese consultar os trabalhos de Tippett et al (2004) e Tootle et al (2008), No intuito de contribuir com a melhoria das previsões de vazão de curto prazo, propõe-se neste trabalho integrar as previsões semanais atualmente realizadas pelo ONS com previsões mensais realizadas a partir de um modelo periódico auto-regressivo (PARX) que considera a informação climática e com isso a variabilidade espaço-temporal das séries históricas de afluências. A integração das previsões multi-escalas é realizada pela técnica de ponderação bayesiana de modelos (BMA), onde os pesos e respectivas incertezas atribuídos a cada modelo são estimados num contexto Bayesiano a partir do desempenho individual observado em um determinado conjunto de dados.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Atualização das previsões de curto prazo de afluências ao sistema hidroelétrico brasileiro a partir da técnica de ponderação bayesiana e de previsões mensais de afluência com uso de informação climática

Oliveira¹

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The relationships between Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures and Colombian streamflow variability

Cited by 53 publications

References 24 publications

Influence of tropical Pacific SST on seasonal precipitation in Colombia: prediction using El Niño and El Niño Modoki

Influence of tropical Pacific SST on seasonal precipitation in Colombia: prediction using El Niño and El Niño Modoki

Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures and regional streamflow variability in the Adour-Garonne basin, France

Atualização das previsões de curto prazo de afluências ao sistema hidroelétrico brasileiro a partir da técnica de ponderação bayesiana e de previsões mensais de afluência com uso de informação climática

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About