The relative accuracy and interpretability of five sequential analysis methods: A simulation study

Abstract

A variety of sequential analysis methods exist to quantify close temporal associations between events from direct observation data. In the present study, we compared the relative accuracy and interpretability of five sequentialanalysis methods using simulated data. The methods included three existing approaches (event lag, concurrent interval, and time window) and two proposed modifications of the event lag approach (event lag with contiguous pauses and event lag with noncontiguous pauses) designed to address limitations of the existing approaches. We evaluated accuracy on the basis of the extent to which the mean contingency estimates produced by each method approximated a known mean (i.e., zero). We evaluated interpretability on the basis of the extent to which the contingency estimates produced by each method were independent from chance estimates of the two-event sequence. The results indicated that the event lag with contiguous pauses method produced the most accurate and interpretable estimates of contingency. This modified method prevents the total number of event types from influencing contingency estimates, thus solving a problem associated with the traditional event lag method.

A descriptive analysis of self‐injury in community settings: exploring behaviour–behaviour contingencies

“…We applied the event lag with pauses method to measure behaviour-behaviour contingencies only; we did not measure behaviour-environment contingencies. We used the event lag with pauses method because it has been shown to (1) produce accurate estimates of sequential association regardless of the total number of coded events and (2) adequately control for chance estimates of the sequence of interest (Lloyd et al 2016). To apply this method, all coded events that did not define the sequence of interest were stripped out of the raw data file for each analysis.…”

“…The sequential analysis method, known as event lag with pauses, has been shown to produce accurate estimates of contingency regardless of the total number of coded events and to adequately control for chance estimates of the sequence of interest (Lloyd et al . ). We analysed a set of community‐based observations for each of seven individuals with ID and chronic SIB to address the following research questions: (1) What is the direction and strength of SIB–SIB contingencies in community settings?…”

“…As a first step to inform the utility of measuring behaviour-behaviour contingencies while accounting for individual topographies and environmental context, we applied a new method of sequential analysis to estimate SIB-SIB contingencies for a sample of individuals with ID observed in community settings. The sequential analysis method, known as event lag with pauses, has been shown to produce accurate estimates of contingency regardless of the total number of coded events and to adequately control for chance estimates of the sequence of interest (Lloyd et al 2016). We analysed a set of community-based observations for each of seven individuals with ID and chronic SIB to address the following research questions: (1) What is the direction and strength of SIB-SIB contingencies in community settings?…”

A new measure of child vocal reciprocity in children with autism spectrum disorder

“…The event lag with contiguous pauses method was selected because decisions regarding which non-key events (i.e., those other than the events in the key sequence) should be analyzed are usually underjustified but can greatly influence the strength and the direction of the sequential association (Lloyd et al, 2015; Yoder & Symons, 2010). An extant simulation study has demonstrated that the event lag with contiguous pauses method resolves the problem of having to justify which non-key events should be included in the computation of a sequential association (Lloyd et al, 2015).…”

“…The event lag with contiguous pauses method has also been shown to be more accurate and less correlated with the frequency of chance occurrence of the sequence of interest than three other sequential analysis methods (i.e., time window, concurrent interval, and event lag without pauses; Lloyd et al, 2015). Further detail about the event lag with contiguous pauses method is found in Lloyd et al (2015).…”