The Relative Age Effect in Ice Hockey: Analysis of Its Presence, Its Fading and of a Reversal Effect among Junior and Professional Leagues

Abstract

This study analyzes the relative age effect (RAE) among the world's best junior hockey leagues and in the NHL. Despite the prevalence of RAE in ice hockey, past research suggests its fading-reversal over time, which may occur at later stages of athletic development. The hypothesis of the RAE reversal was tested with two sources of raw data files from the 2021-2022 season: 15 of the best international junior and minor professional leagues (N = 7 399) and the NHL (N = 812). Birth quartile distributions were analyzed to verify the prevalence of RAE and quantile regression was used to test the reversal of RAE hypotheses. Advanced hockey metrics were aggregated from multiple data sources and used to compare early born with late born players using birth quartiles. Prevalence of the RAE was verified with crosstabs analyses and quantile regression was used to test the reversal effect. Results indicated that the RAE still prevailed in ice hockey, with higher magnitude in Canadian leagues. Regression analyses showed that late-born junior and minor pro players, despite getting less exposure in terms of games played, attained levels of offensive production similar to those of early born players. Late-born players able to emerge in the NHL performed similarly and sometimes displayed better performance (in some markers). Results suggest that stakeholders should find ways to pay special attention to late born players in talent identification processes and offer them opportunities to develop at the highest levels.

Perceived competence in ice hockey and its associations with relative age, early sport specialization, and players’ position

“…Players born earlier in the year also report higher levels of tactical ability and coachability. This may be partly because players born early in the selection year generally play more games and have more ice time, which offers them more opportunities to shine ( Lemoyne et al, 2023 ). Moreover, coaches may trust these players more and feel they can implement game plans, thus positively affecting their perceived competencies.…”

To be or not to be born at the right time: lessons from ice hockey

“…Other research has established that there is not much difference on anthropometric measures of ice hockey players born in the different trimesters of the year ( 30 , 31 ). Finally, several papers were dedicated to the case of the NHL, including the fact that the effect is weaker there than in minor ice hockey, a finding referred to as a reversal effect ( 18 , 32 – 35 ).…”

Participação dos atletas jovens nos campeonatos portugueses de atletismo sénior de pista realizados de 1990 a 2019

“…Esta linha de investigação académica tem merecido grande investimento, com maior expressão nos desportos coletivos, como andebol (Gil et al, 2021;Rubia et al 2020;Tróznai et al, 2021), basquetebol (Brustio et al, 2021;Gil et al, 2021;Kolocicny et al, 2021;Lupo et al, 2019;Tascioglu et al, 2023), futebol (Brustio et al, 2021;Gil et al, 2021;Gioldasis et al, 2021;Gotza;Hoppe, 2021;, hóquei no gelo (Barnsley;Thompson, 1988;Lemoyne et al, 2021Lemoyne et al, , 2023, rugby (Kelly et al, 2021; e voleibol (Brustio et al, 2021;Castro et al, 2022;Lupo et al, 2019;Rubajczyk;Rokita, 2020). No entanto, embora em menor número, a literatura também contempla estudos centrados no efeito da idade relativa em modalidades individuais, como a natação (Bozdech et al, 2022;Nagy et al, 2015), ski alpino (Bjerke et al, 2020;De Larochelambert et al, 2023;Jakobsson et al, 2021), ténis (Gerdin;Hageskog, 2018;Kolonicny et al, 2021;Zhánel et al, 2022), triatlo (Ferriz-Valero et al, 2020;Ortigosa-Marquez et al, 2018;Werneck et al, 2014), e atletismo (Brazo-Sayavera et al, 2016;Kearney et al, 2018).…”