The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century

Hedegaard, G. B.; Christensen, J. H.; Brandt, Jørgen

doi:10.5194/acp-13-3569-2013

Cited by 69 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Several other studies have focused only on the regional impact of climate change (Langner et al, 2012a, b;Andersson and Engardt, 2010;Manders et al, 2012;Hedegaard et al, 2008Hedegaard et al, , 2013Katragkou et al, 2011). They found a general increase in ozone concentrations owing to increasing biogenic emissions and favourable conditions for the build-up of ozone pollution as a result of increased temperature, more frequent summer blocking and heat waves and increased short-wave radiation.…”

Section: Role Of Biogenics In the Formation Of Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. Much effort is focused on the reduction of surface levels of ozone owing to its health and vegetation impacts, but recent efforts to achieve reductions in exposure at a country scale have proved difficult to achieve owing to increases in background ozone at the zonal hemispheric scale. There is also a growing realisation that the role of ozone as a short-lived climate pollutant could be important in integrated air quality climate change mitigation. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models. It takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner. The review shows that there remain a number of clear challenges for ozone such as explaining surface trends, incorporating new chemical understanding, ozone-climate coupling, and a better assessment of impacts. There is a clear and present need to treat ozone across the range of scales, a transboundary issue, but with an emphasis on the hemispheric scales. New observational opportunities are offered both by satellites and small sensors that bridge the scales.

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Section: Role Of Biogenics In the Formation Of Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Existing investigations all agree on a larger impact of air quality policies (Tagaris et al, 2007;Hedegaard et al, 2013;Colette et al, 2013), supporting the efficiency of currently planned mitigation strategies, despite external penalties brought about by climate change and long-range transport.…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

et al. 2015

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“…Furthermore, since emission rates of natural sources often depend strongly on meteorological conditions (e.g. temperature and wind speed); their contributions to air pollution levels are expected to change in the future with a changing climate (Heald et al, 2008;Jiang et al, 2010;Hedegaard et al, 2008Hedegaard et al, , 2012Hedegaard et al, , 2013. Although efforts have been carried out to investigate and quantify natural emissions, the uncertainties and gaps with regard to these emissions are still quite large (Williams et al, 2013;Schultz et al, 2008;Guenther et al, 1995Guenther et al, , 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the contributions of natural emissions to ozone and total fine PM concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Accurate estimates of emissions from natural sources are needed for reliable predictions of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) using air quality models. In this study, the large-scale atmospheric chemistry transport model, DEHM (the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) is further developed, evaluated and applied to study and quantify the contributions of natural emissions of VOCs, NO x , NH 3 , SO 2 , CH 4 , PM, CO and sea salt to the concentration of ozone and formation of PM 2.5 for the year 2006. Natural source categories adopted in the recent model are vegetation, lightning, soils, wild animals and oceans. In this study, the model has been further developed to include more Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) and to implement a scheme for secondary organic aerosols as well as an updated description of sea-salt emissions. Our simulations indicate that in the Northern Hemisphere the contribution from natural emissions to the average annual ozone mixing ratios over land is between 4-30 ppbV. Among the natural emissions, BVOCs are found to be the most significant contributors to ozone formation in 2006, enhancing the average ozone mixing ratio by about 11 % over the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The relative contribution of all the natural emissions to ozone is found to be highest in the northern part of South America by about 42 %. Similarly, the highest contribution of all the natural sources to total fine particles over land is found to be in South America by about 74 % and sea-salt aerosols demonstrated to play the most important role. However, over the rest of the regions in the model domain the largest contribution from the natural sources to PM 2.5 in the specific year 2006 is due to wildfires. The contribution from natural emissions to the mean PM 2.5 concentration over the land areas in the model domain is about 34 %.

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“…On the other hand, radiation levels and temperature play a major role on gas-phase chemistry through the photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants (see e.g., Katragkou et al, 2010;Forkel et al, 2012;Jiménez-Guerrero et al, 2012;Meier et al, 2012;Colette et al, 2013;Hedegaard et al, 2013; as recent works on the topic), determining also the vegetation activity and thereby modifying natural emissions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on European aerosol ground levels through local processes: a seasonal model-based assessment using fixed anthropogenic emissions

et al. 2013

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Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) controls a large amount of the European climate variability with asymmetric impacts in both time and space. Here we investigate how the NAO impact on the local atmospheric processes (disregarding the NAO impact on the large intercontinental transport mechanisms) influences the levels of various aerosol species using simulated data under constant emissions, which are fixed to the 2005 levels in order to avoid anthropogenic-induced signals. In particular, we analyze interannual variations at the seasonal timescale and focus on the ground-level. The results show that positive NAO phases favor increased aerosol concentrations in southern (northern) regions during winter (summer), while negative NAO phases enhance them in northern (southern) regions during winter (summer). The underlying processes are clearly related to the NAO impact on precipitation and wind, as they act to clean the atmosphere through removal and dispersion processes, and to the NAO impact on the radiation balance (i.e., cloudiness) as it affects the biogenic emitting activity and on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Differences for all the species studied (natural inert, secondary inorganic and organic aerosols) are up to 5 µg m −3 , reaching 10 and 20 µg m −3 for PM 10 and PM 2.5 respectively, which represents variations of about 20-40 % in their mean levels between opposite NAO phases.

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The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century

Cited by 69 publications

References 24 publications

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Quantifying the contributions of natural emissions to ozone and total fine PM concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on European aerosol ground levels through local processes: a seasonal model-based assessment using fixed anthropogenic emissions

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