The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

Abstract

Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea is a shrub belonging to the Celastraceae family, whose only European populations are distributed discontinuously along the south-eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula, forming plant communities with great ecological value, unique in Europe. As it is an endangered species that makes up plant communities with great palaeoecological significance, the development of species distribution models is of major interest under different climatic scenarios, past, present and future, based on the fact that the climate could play a relevant role in the distribution of this species, as well as in the conformation of the communities in which it is integrated. Palaeoecological models were generated for the Maximum Interglacial, Last Maximum Glacial and Middle Holocene periods. The results obtained showed that the widest distribution of this species, and the maximum suitability of its habitat, occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum, when the temperatures of the peninsular southeast were not as contrasting as those of the rest of the European continent and were favored by higher rainfall. Under these conditions, large territories could act as shelters during the glacial period, a hypothesis reflected in the model’s results for this period, which exhibit a further expansion of M. europaea’s ecological niche. The future projection of models in around 2070, for four Representative Concentration Pathways according to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, showed that the most favorable areas for this species would be Campo de Dalías (southern portion of Almería province) as it presents the bioclimatic characteristics of greater adjustment to M. europaea’s ecological niche model. Currently, some of the largest specimens of the species survive in the agricultural landscapes in the southern Spain. These areas are almost totally destroyed and heavily altered by intensive agriculture greenhouses, also causing a severe fragmentation of the habitat, which implies a prospective extinction scenario in the near future.

Potential changes in the distribution of Delphinium bolosii and related taxa of the series Fissa from the Iberian Peninsula under future climate change scenarios

“…Our models showed potential impacts of climate change on the series Fissa species in the Iberian Peninsula, a result that is consistent with previous climate change analyses conducted with mountain species (Lenoir et al 2008;Engler et al 2011) and threatened taxa (Mendoza-Fernández et al 2021). Studies about the effects of climate change on biodiversity have predicted range contractions for many species, but range expansion has also been documented (see e.g.…”

Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography and Ecological Structure of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. in China

“…Variables with a correlation coefficient greater than 0.75 were considered highly correlated, and only those with high importance and interpretability were retained for species distribution modeling. The method of evaluating and selecting variables based on their importance using ensemble models allows for a more comprehensive consideration of each variable’s contribution to model predictions compared to other approaches for addressing multicollinearity [ 50 , 51 ]. Consequently, this method facilitates the selection of important variables, thereby enhancing the interpretability of the model.…”

Reconnecting Farmers with Nature through Agroecological Transitions: Interacting Niches and Experimentation and the Role of Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation Systems

“…43% of its distribution area is nowadays occupied by greenhouses. As a result, the landscape is highly fragmented and only a few poorly conserved patches of native vegetation remain in the area [15,83,84].…”