The Remote Responses of Early Summer Cold Vortex Precipitation in Northeastern China to the precedent Sea Surface Temperatures

Fang, Yihe; Chen, Kaiqi; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Shiqi; Geng, Xin; Li, Tianyu; Teng, Fang-Da; Zhou, Xiao‐Yu; Wang, Yongguang

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.08.007

Cited by 38 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The specific mechanism will be studied in another paper. This conclusion was also determined to be similar to those reached by Fang et al (2018) and Lu et al (2020). It was indicated that the Atlantic SST anomalies can induce atmospheric diabatic heating, which stimulates quasibarotropic mid-to high-latitude Rossby wave trains to the downstream along a parallel circle through the sea-air interactions.…”

Section: Relationships Between the Key Areas Of The Ssts Of The Southsupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Wang et al (2018) and Chen et al (2018), respectively, revealed the relationships between the surface thermal factors of Western Asia during the spring months and the downstream atmospheric circulation activities, and then investigated their impacts on the NCCV activities and precipitation values in the NEC region in early summer. Fang et al (2018) carried out diagnostic analyses and numerical simulations of the causes of precipitation anomalies in the NEC region in early summer. It was pointed out in the aforementioned study that the anomalies of the North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) and the SSTs of the Kuroshio area were the possible factors causing the anomalies of circulation systems, such as the NCCV activities during the early summer months, as well as the high blocking pressure in the upper and lower reaches, and so on.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Possible Relationships Between the Interannual Anomalies of the South-North Positions of the Northeastern China Cold Vortexes and the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) During the Early Summer Periods

et al. 2020

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Section: Relationships Between the Key Areas Of The Ssts Of The Southsupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible Relationships Between the Interannual Anomalies of the South-North Positions of the Northeastern China Cold Vortexes and the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) During the Early Summer Periods

et al. 2020

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“…These results are consistent with that of previous studies, which have proposed that NECR is affected mainly by the East Asian subtropical monsoon system (for example, the WNPAC and NEC southerly winds), and the westerly circulation system (such as the NEC cold vortex) in late summer (Fang et al 2018;Shen et al 2011;Zhao et al 2018). Among them, the WNPAC is the dominant factor contributing to the NECR variability by modulating the northward transport of water vapor from the ocean.…”

Section: Simultaneous Sstas and Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies Associated With The Interannual Variation Of Late Summer Necrsupporting

confidence: 93%

Oceanic Drivers and Empirical Prediction of Interannual Rainfall Variability in Late Summer Over Northeast China

Zhao

Zhang

Zuo

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Northeast China (NEC) is located between the subtropical monsoon and temperate-frigid monsoon regions and exhibits two successive rainy seasons with different natures: the northeast cold vortex rainy season in early summer (May–June) and the monsoon rainy season in late summer (July–August). Summer rainfall over NEC (NECR) has a fundamental influence on society, yet its successful seasonal prediction remains a long-term scientific challenge to current dynamical models. The poor NECR prediction skill is partly attributed to the large NECR variability at both the interannual and interdecadal time scales. Here, we focus on the oceanic drivers of the late summer NECR variability and associated physical processes at interannual time scale. Then, we establish an empirical prediction model to predict the interannual variability of summer NECR at one-month lead time (in June). The analysis of observations spanning 40 years (1963–2002) reveals three physically and synergistically influencing predictors of the late summer NECR interannual variability. Above-normal NECR is preceded in the previous spring by (a) warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical northern Indian Ocean, (b) a positive thermal contrast tendency in the tropical West–East Pacific SST, and (c) a positive tendency of the North Atlantic tripolar SST. These precursors enhance the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the Northwest Pacific and southerly anomalies over NEC in late summer, which are beneficial to enhancing NECR. An empirical prediction model built on these three predictors achieves a forecast temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.72 for 1961–2019, and a 17-year (2003–2019) independent forecast shows a significant TCC skill of 0.70. The skill is substantially higher than that of five state-of-the-art dynamical models and their ensemble mean for 1979–2019 (TCC=0.24). These results suggest that the proposed empirical model is a very meaningful approach for the prediction of NECR, although the dynamical prediction of NECR has considerable room for improvement.

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“…Also, when the ESM type NCCV occurred, the Indian Ocean was found to have large-scaled negative SST anomalies. Fang et al (2018) carried out diagnostic analysis and numerical simulation processes in order to determine the causes of the precipitation anomalies in NEC during early summer months. It was pointed out that the anomalies in the SST tripole of the North Atlantic Ocean, along with the SSTs of the Kuroshio area, had resulted in anomalies of the high pressure circulation system due to the blocking of the upstream and downstream NCCV.…”

Section: Relationships Between the Four Nccv Types And The Sstmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Characteristics of Northeast China Cold Vortex With Different Active Paths in June and Their Relationship With Precipitation and Pre-SST

Fang

Zhang

Zhao

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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In this study, a K-means clustering (KMC) method was used to identify the paths of the Northeast China (NEC) Cold Vortex (NCCV). The NCCV was divided into four types according to the identified active paths: (1) Eastward movement type (EM); (2) Southeastward long-distance movement type (SLM); (3) Eastward short-distance movement type (ESM); and (4) Southward short-distance movement type (SSM). The characteristics of the four types of the NCCV, along with their impacts on the precipitation during early summer in NEC, were studied. The results showed that the KMC method can effectively divide the NCCV events into four different types. The maintaining days of these four types of the NCCV were found to have obvious interannual and interdecadal variation features. For example, the maintaining days of the EM and ESM types were mainly characterized by interannual variability, while the SLM and SSM types have the obvious 10–13a interdecadal variation along with interannual variability. In terms of the spatial distributions and impacts on precipitation, the EM type was found to appear in the majority of the areas located in NEC, the SLM type mainly occurred in the northwestern region of NEC and the highest rain center was located in the south-central portion, while the ESM type and SSM type were observed precipitation only appear in a small portion of the northeastern region. In addition, it is also observed the distribution of the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies had close relationship with the formation of these four types of the NCCV. The tripole distributions of the SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean corresponded to the EM type of the NCCV, the positive anomalies of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and negative anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific corresponded to the SLM type, the positive SSTs in the Northwest Pacific correspond to the ESM type, while negative anomalies SST in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean corresponded to the SSM type of the NCCV.

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The Remote Responses of Early Summer Cold Vortex Precipitation in Northeastern China to the precedent Sea Surface Temperatures

Cited by 38 publications

References 7 publications

Possible Relationships Between the Interannual Anomalies of the South-North Positions of the Northeastern China Cold Vortexes and the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) During the Early Summer Periods

Possible Relationships Between the Interannual Anomalies of the South-North Positions of the Northeastern China Cold Vortexes and the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) During the Early Summer Periods

Oceanic Drivers and Empirical Prediction of Interannual Rainfall Variability in Late Summer Over Northeast China

The Characteristics of Northeast China Cold Vortex With Different Active Paths in June and Their Relationship With Precipitation and Pre-SST

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