The representation–usage–impact approach to anticipate long-term social effects of autonomous vehicles

Abstract

This article explores a new approach to anticipate the social impacts of disruptive products, using autonomous vehicles (AVs) as a case study. It highlights the limitations of current methods in predicting the social effects of new products and proposes that futures studies and strategic foresight can provide better techniques. The main hypothesis is that experts in social sciences can anticipate long-term social impacts by considering contextualized future product usages. The authors propose a new model called Representation–Usage–Impact (RUI), which combines expert knowledge from sociology and other fields. The article presents a detailed structure for the model and describes how experts can contribute their knowledge. Sessions were organized with experts to link AV usages with potential social impacts. The results demonstrate that social science experts can identify a wide range of potential long-term social impacts. The article suggests that the RUI model should be integrated and tested into design and decision-making tools to enhance the understanding of product impacts in practical contexts.