SUMMARYDespite the 1989 ivory trade ban, elephants continue to be killed to harvest their tusks for ivory. Since 2008, this poaching has increased to unprecedented levels driven by consumer demand for ivory products. CITES is now considering to develop a legal ivory trade [1,2]. The proposal relies on three assumptions: i) harvest regulation will cease all illegal activities; ii) defined sustainable quotas can be enforced; iii) we can define meaningful sustainable quotas that come close to the current demand. We know that regulating harvest does not stop illegal takes. Despite whaling regulation after WWII, illegal whaling continued for decades [3]. The introduction of wolf culls in the USA actually increased poaching activities [4] while one-off ivory sales in 1999 and 2008 did nothing to halt elephant poaching. Governance issues over the ivory supply chains, including stockpiling, make enforcing quotas challenging if not impossible [5,6]. We have not yet adequately assessed what could be a sustainable ivory yield. To do so, we develop a compartmental model composed of a two-sex agestructured demographic model and an ivory production and harvest model. We applied several offtake and quota strategies to define how much ivory could be sustainably harvested. We found that the sustainability space is very small. Only 100 to 150kg of ivory could be removed from a reference population of 1360 elephants, levels well below the current demand. Our study shows that lifting the ivory ban will not address the current poaching challenge. We should instead focus on reducing consumer demand.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONHarvest model development In order to develop a harvest model, we must first understand the process by which ivory is obtained. We can apply one of the many approaches used in wildlife management to define these sustainable quotas. However, much of the debate surrounding the sustainability of ivory harvest overlooks one key point: hunters do not want to kill elephants; they want to harvest ivory. Yet, we attempt to inform this harvest using one of two approaches, neither suited to the challenge. It is misguided to use classical population models to try and predict what level of elephant removal population(s) can sustain so as to provide the ivory needed for the market because ivory requires selective harvesting from a sexually dimorphic trait [7]. It is also misguided to use classical resource extraction models, which the current CITES "Decision-Making Mechanism for a Process of Trade in Ivory" is considering, because ivory is a renewable resource made by elephants which increases in mass as elephants age [2]. If the take does not match the demographic pace of elephant populations, a given amount of ivory harvested by removing a few large elephants from the population will require killing more, smaller, elephants the next year. We faced a similar hurdle in the early 20 th century when trying to manage whaling by reducing the harvest to the amount of whale oil produced when that oil was extracted from different age-se...