The resistance of the greater Baltic region states to market cycle changes

Abstract

A non-linear change process is a specific feature of a poorly regulated market economy. However, many researchers have shown that different economic sectors do not respond to market cycles in a similar way. Regional economic systems are a combination of many sectors, therefore a hypothesis about the correlation between the stability of regional economies and market cycles is examined. The study is conducted using the Baltic countries (hereinafter referred to as Greater Baltic Region, GBR) as an example. GBR countries have been classified into highly stable, relatively stable, unstable, and highly unstable based on the study of the stability of national economies to global cycle processes. The GDP dynamics of the countries were compared to GDP cycles of the US and the EU, which are the main financial centres. To understand the reasons, the sectoral structure of GDP is additionally considered. The results allow the author to classify of GBR countries according to the structure of economic sectors and the stability of the regional economy.

Modeling macroeconomic indicators in unstable economies

“…Based on the analyses of the dynamics of GDP and its components, the patterns of development and economy growth, cycles and resistance of different economies to them become apparent. Thus, (Baburin, 2019) researched the resilience of the economies of the Greater Baltic Region to the cycles` conditions, calculated the cycle duration of 5-7 years and indicated that the main factor of stability of a country is its specialization. In their works (Korotayev et al, 2020) studied Kondratiev's long waves based on growth rates of global GDP and concluded that it is the developing countries that are generating such waves during the given period.…”