The Response of the Stratospheric Climate to Projected Changes in the Concentrations of Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases from 1992 to 2051

Butchart, Neal; Austin, J.; Knight, Jeffrey; Scaife, Adam A.; Gallani, M.L.

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2142:trotsc>2.0.co;2

Cited by 96 publications

(124 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…An increase in Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar stratospheric PV is found from autumn through spring. These PV changes are consistent with the results of Butchart et al (2000), who find enhanced cooling in the SH stratosphere in spring, and also in the NH upper stratosphere in late autumn and spring, while they find a warming in the NH lower stratosphere in winter.…”

Section: Stratospheric Pv Changessupporting

confidence: 92%

“…The NH winter heat flux is somewhat higher for the ECHAM model than for the UM model. Interestingly, this upward flux of wave activity from the troposphere due to an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is also found by, for example, Butchart et al (2000), Schnadt et al (2002) and Shepherd (2008). Haklander et al (2008) studied changes in the NH upward wave flux in the same ECHAM model runs in more detail, and found an increase of about 12 % in the January-February mean 100 hPa heat flux due to CO 2 doubling.…”

Section: Stratospheric Pv Changesmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…The change in CO 2 has a radiative effect. A higher stratospheric CO 2 concentration will lead to an enhanced cooling to space (Fels et al, 1980;Butchart et al, 2000;Shindell et al, 2001). CO 2 doubling will cause changes in the radiative cooling, resulting in cooling of the stratosphere that increases with height (e.g., Bell et al, 2010) and hence resulting in a change in the stability and the PV.…”

Section: Stratospheric Pv Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO2 doubling

2011

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Abstract. The influence of a CO 2 doubling on the stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) is examined in two climate models. Subsequently, the influence of changes in the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response is investigated, by inverting the stratospheric PV.Radiative effects seem to dominate the stratospheric response to CO 2 doubling in the Southern Hemisphere. These lead to a stratospheric PV increase at the edge of the polar vortex, resulting in an increased westerly influence of the stratosphere on the troposphere, increasing the midlatitude tropospheric westerlies in late winter.In the Northern Hemisphere, dynamical effects are also important. Both models show a reduced polar PV and an enhanced midlatitude PV in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere. These PV changes are likely related to an enhanced wave forcing of the winter stratosphere, as measured by an increase in the 100 hPa eddy heat flux, and result in a reduced westerly influence of the stratosphere on the high latitude tropospheric winds. In one model, the high latitude PV decreases are, however, restricted to higher altitudes, and the tropospheric response due to the stratospheric changes is dominated by an increased westerly influence in the midlatitudes, related to the increase in midlatitude PV in the lower stratosphere.The tropospheric response in zonal wind due to the stratospheric PV changes is of the order of 0.5 to 1 m s −1 . The total tropospheric response has a somewhat different spatial structure, but is of similar magnitude. This indicates that the stratospheric influence is of importance in modifying the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO 2 doubling.

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Section: Stratospheric Pv Changessupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Stratospheric Pv Changesmentioning

confidence: 58%

Section: Stratospheric Pv Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO2 doubling

2011

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“…Butchart et al [2000] predict a cooling of 0.5-1.5 K by 2010 over the Antarctic region in comparison to a 1992 -2001 model average. This would lead to an increase of hole size by 0.33-1.00 million km 2 by 2010, offsetting the decrease of size from decreasing Cl y and Br y .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

On the size of the Antarctic ozone hole

Newman

Kawa

Nash

2004

Geophysical Research Letters

104

114

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[1] A primary estimate of the severity of the Antarctic ozone hole is its size. The size is calculated from the area contained by total column ozone values less than 220 Dobson Units (DU) during September -October. The 220-DU value is used because it is lower than pre-1980 observed ozone values, and because it is in the strong ozone gradient region. We quantitatively show that the ozone hole size is primarily sensitive to effective stratospheric chlorine trends, and secondarily to the year-to-year variations in temperatures near the edge of the polar vortex. Temperatures are in turn sensitive to variations in tropospheric planetary wave forcing of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. Currently the average hole size reaches approximately 25 million km 2 each spring. Slow decreases of ozone depleting substances will only result in a decrease of about 1 million km 2 by 2015. This slow size decrease will be obscured by large dynamically forced year-to-year variations of 4 million km 2 (1s), and possibly delayed by greenhouse gas cooling of the Antarctic stratosphere.

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“…Considering the extensive interannual and decadal scale dynamical variability at the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes (see e.g. Butchart et al, 2000) and the relative shortness of the Odin data set, some disagreement can be expected here. Accordingly, the difference in this region and period is expected to be less when viewed in EqLs.…”

Section: Comparisons With Other No Y Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Odin stratospheric proxy NOy measurements and climatology

et al. 2008

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Abstract. Five years of OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph andInfraRed Imager System) NO 2 and SMR (Sub-millimetre and Millimetre Radiometer) HNO 3 observations from the Odin satellite, combined with data from a photochemical box model, have been used to construct a stratospheric proxy NO y data set including the gases: NO, NO 2 , HNO 3 , 2×N 2 O 5 and ClONO 2 . This Odin NO y climatology is based on all daytime measurements and contains monthly mean and standard deviation, expressed as mixing ratio or number density, as function of latitude or equivalent latitude (5 • bins) on 17 vertical layers (altitude, pressure or potential temperature) between 14 and 46 km. Comparisons with coincident NO y profiles from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) instrument were used to evaluate several methods to combine Odin observations with model data. This comparison indicates that the most appropriate merging technique uses OSIRIS measurements of NO 2 , scaled with model NO/NO 2 ratios, to estimate NO. The sum of 2×N 2 O 5 and ClONO 2 is estimated from uncertainty-based weighted averages of scaled observations of SMR HNO 3 and OSIRIS NO 2 . Comparisons with ACE-FTS suggest the precision (random error) and accuracy (systematic error) of Odin NO y profiles are about 15% and 20%, respectively. Further comparisons between Odin and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) show agreement to within 20% and 2 ppb throughout most of the stratosphere except in the polar vortices. The combination of good temporal and spatial coverage, a relatively long data record, and good accuracy and precision make this a valuable NO y product for various atmospheric studies and model assessments.

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The Response of the Stratospheric Climate to Projected Changes in the Concentrations of Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases from 1992 to 2051

Cited by 96 publications

References 44 publications

The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO<sub>2</sub> doubling

The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO<sub>2</sub> doubling

On the size of the Antarctic ozone hole

Odin stratospheric proxy NO<sub>y</sub> measurements and climatology

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The Response of the Stratospheric Climate to Projected Changes in the Concentrations of Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases from 1992 to 2051

Cited by 96 publications

References 44 publications

The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; doubling

The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; doubling

On the size of the Antarctic ozone hole

Odin stratospheric proxy NO&lt;sub&gt;y&lt;/sub&gt; measurements and climatology

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO<sub>2</sub> doubling

The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO<sub>2</sub> doubling

Odin stratospheric proxy NO<sub>y</sub> measurements and climatology