The Response of Tropospheric Circulation to Perturbations in Lower-Stratospheric Temperature

Haigh, Joanna D.; Blackburn, Michael; Day, R.

doi:10.1175/jcli3472.1

Cited by 241 publications

(273 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…It agrees with vL07 in terms of the SLP signal around the north Pacific at peak SSN and continues throughout the following years of higher solar activity. It is also consistent with observational studies (Brönnimann et al, 2006;Haigh et al, 2005) and modeling studies (Haigh, 1996;1999;Larkin et al, 2000;Matthes et al, 2006) which have indicated an expansion of the zonal mean Hadley cell, and poleward shift of the Ferrel cell, at solar maxima. It does not, however, reproduce the pattern found by vL07, using the HadSLP1 dataset, which placed a negative anomaly around 10-30 • N in the mid-Pacific.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Solar cycle signals in sea level pressure and sea surface temperature

2010

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Abstract. We identify solar cycle signals in 155 years of global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) data using a multiple linear regression approach. In SLP we find in the North Pacific a statistically significant weakening of the Aleutian Low and a northward shift of the Hawaiian High in response to higher solar activity, confirming the results of previous authors using different techniques. We also find a weak but broad reduction in pressure across the equatorial Pacific. In SST we identify a weak El Niño-like pattern in the tropics for the 155 year period, unlike the strong La Niña-like signal found recently by some other authors. We show that the latter have been influenced by the technique of compositing data from peak years of the sunspot cycle because these years have often coincided with the negative phase of the ENSO cycle. Furthermore, the date of peak annual sunspot number (SSN) generally falls a year or more in advance of the broader maximum of the 11-year solar cycle so that analyses which incorporate data from all years represent more coherently the difference between periods of high and low solar activity on these timescales. We also find that studies of the solar signal in SST over the second half of the 20th century may alias as ENSO signal if this is not properly taken into account.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Solar cycle signals in sea level pressure and sea surface temperature

2010

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“…First we accomplished this, using established QBO time series . By themselves the solar and QBO signals were rather weak, although the solar pattern is consistent with previous studies suggesting a slight expansion of the Hadley cells when the Sun is more active (Haigh, 1996;Haigh et al, 2005). The compound solar*QBO signal shows significant increase in SLP at very high latitudes, consistent with LW and HE produce a strengthening (and LE and HW a weakening) in the annular modes.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

The influence of solar variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower atmospheric temperatures and sea level pressure

Roy

Haigh

2011

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Our fundamental aim is to investigate solar cycle signals in sea level pressure. In order to see if these may relate, especially at high latitudes, to the solar influence on the stratosphere we start by investigating the temperature of the winter polar stratosphere and its dependence on the state of the Sun and the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). We find that the choice of pressure level used to define the phase of the QBO is important in determining how the solar and QBO influences appear to act in combination.Informed by this we carry out a multiple linear regression analysis of zonal mean temperatures throughout the lower stratosphere and troposphere. A combined solar*QBO temporal index exhibits strongly in the lower stratosphere, but in much of the troposphere any influence of the QBO, either on its own or coupled to solar effects is much smaller than the pure solar signal.We use a similar approach to analyse sea level pressure (SLP) data, first using a standard QBO time series dating back to 1953. We find at high latitudes that individually the solar and QBO signals are weak but that the compound solar*QBO temporal index shows a significant signal. This is such that combinations of low solar activity with westerly QBO and high solar activity with easterly QBO are both associated with a strengthening in the polar modes; while the opposite combinations coincide with a weakening. By employing a QBO dataset reconstructed back to 1900, we extend the SLP analysis back to that date and also find a robust signal in the surface SAM; though weaker for surface NAM.Our results suggest that solar variability, modulated by the phase of QBO, influences zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes in the lower stratosphere, in the mid-latitude troposphere and sea level pressure near the poles. Thus a knowlCorrespondence to: I. Roy (indrani r@hotmail.com) edge of the state of the Sun, and the phase of the QBO might be useful in surface climate prediction.

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“…The large significance for adding ENSO without volcanic aerosol in Table III, compared to the modest significance for ENSO in Table I when volcanic aerosol is also included, is probably because of correlation between ENSO and volcanic aerosol indices. Haigh et al (2005) show correlations between various indices, by far the largest being that between ENSO and volcanic indices with correlation coefficient of 0.326. Tables I-III show that SAM has a strong correlation with stratospheric chlorine.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Influences of ozone depletion, the solar cycle and the QBO on the Southern Annular Mode

Roscoe

Haigh

2007

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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ABSTRACT:We present results of multiple regressions of the leading mode of atmospheric variability at southern high latitudes: the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It is regressed against indices with large interannual variability, and one of several trend indices in order to determine which trend term gives the optimum fit. We use SAM in sea-level pressure from station data in order to provide a long time series, from 1957 to 2005. The regression indices are stratospheric volcanic aerosol, solar activity, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, together with either a linear trend, or the effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine (EESC) that depletes polar ozone, or ozone mass deficit (OMD) in the Antarctic vortex. We find a statistically significant signal for volcanic aerosol, and, when the solar and QBO indices are represented by their product, a highly significant response to the product. We find a significant linear trend in SAM, but there is a major increase in significance using EESC 2 and a further increase using OMD. We make no direct attempt to identify cause and effect, but if the trend is due to human influence then ozone loss is at least 9 times more likely the principle cause of the trend in SAM than greenhouse gases, although we do not exclude greenhouse gases making a smaller contribution. Monthly and seasonal regressions show a maximum correlation with OMD between December and May (summer and autumn), consistent with previous work on stratospheric change as a cause of change in the troposphere.

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The Response of Tropospheric Circulation to Perturbations in Lower-Stratospheric Temperature

Cited by 241 publications

References 22 publications

Solar cycle signals in sea level pressure and sea surface temperature

Solar cycle signals in sea level pressure and sea surface temperature

The influence of solar variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower atmospheric temperatures and sea level pressure

Influences of ozone depletion, the solar cycle and the QBO on the Southern Annular Mode

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