The return of Malthus? Resource constraints in an era of declining population growth

Naso, Pedro; Lanz, Bruno; Swanson, Timothy

doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103499

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…It should be noted that some studies suggest modifications to model (3) [17,18], which allow correcting the dynamics of unlimited growth as a consequence of a lack of resources [19]. At the same time, the limited resources are displayed in such models only indirectly, and the social and environmental components of the concept of sustainable development are absent.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Model aspect of the study of the processes of sustainable development of socio-economic systems

Ivanov,

Grynko,

Porokhnya

et al. 2023

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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The triune concept of sustainable development takes into account environmental, social and economic issues in general. At the same time, the solution of the problems of resource conservation and socio-economic development do not contradict each other, but contribute to mutual reinforcement. The purpose of this study is to build, describe, test and analyze economic and mathematical models of the processes of self-organization of the socio-economic system within the framework of the concept of sustainable development. The considered models take into account both quantitative and qualitative characteristics. The research methodology is based on the assumption that the system under consideration is dynamic. The study makes it possible to evaluate the process of sustainable development of the socio-economic system in terms of the formation and influence of its characteristics on the overall result. Various options for formalizing the level of motivation of economic activity are described and analyzed, one of which is based on the economic interpretation of the Weber-Fechner psychophysiological law. The assumption of the continuous development of innovative technologies made it possible to reveal the existence of a “fatigue point”, the onset of which indicates the possibility of increasing the growth rate of production activities due to its technological transformation.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…where r is the scale factor. Analysis of changes in functions (19), (20) (figure 4) displays their distinctive features. First, m(N ) ∈ [0; 1], and M (N ) ∈ (0; +∞).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model aspect of the study of the processes of sustainable development of socio-economic systems

Ivanov,

Grynko,

Porokhnya

et al. 2023

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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“…Par rapport au lien entre la croissance démographique et la croissance économique, les résultats sont mitigés. Certains résultats aboutissent au lien négatif entre la croissance démographique et le développement socioéconomique (Ekodo, 2018) alors que d'autres trouvent que l'effet est neutre voire positif (Naso et al, 2020;Omotayo et Olusegun, 2020;Mariko et al, 2021). Le contexte, la période d'étude ou la zone d'étude (Genné 1981;Møller et Sharp, 2014;Birchenall, 2016;Cruz et Ahmed, 2018;Irmen, 2021) (pays développés ou sous-développés) peuvent être parmi les facteurs qui influencent les résultats.…”

Section: Revue Empiriqueunclassified

Croissance démographique et développement durable : Cas des pays du Bassin du Congo

Fotio,

Tabi,

Kamdem

et al. 2023

Rev. Afr. Environ. Agric.

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Description du sujet. Les forêts jouent un rôle important dans la lutte contre les changements climatiques. C’est le cas du Bassin du Congo qui est le second plus grand écosystème forestier tropical après l’Amazonie. Au-delà du rôle joué sur le cycle du carbone, ces forêts d’Afrique centrale offrent des moyens de subsistance à 60 millions de personnes qui y vivent ou résident à proximité. La préservation des forêts du bassin du Congo est ainsi au centre des préoccupations internationales notamment à travers l’agenda 2021 des Nations unies promeut la gestion durable et la gestion durable des forêts.Objectif. L’objectif de cet article est d’évaluer les effets de la croissance démographique sur le développement durable des pays du Bassin du Congo (BC).Méthodes. A partir des données de panel couvrant la période 1990- 2018 issues de WDI Banque mondiale, UNDP DATABASE et d’United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019), l’on a utilisé l’approche STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population and technology) et de la méthode d’estimation des Moments Généralisés (GMM) en panel dynamique.Résultats. Les résultats montrent que lorsque la population augmente de 1,00 % dans les pays du BC, le taux de déforestation augmente 0,30 % et lorsque la population urbaine augmente de 1,00 % dans les pays du BC, le taux de déforestation augmente 5,22 %. Par contre, lorsque le PIB/Habitant et l’IDH augmente de de 1,00 %, le taux de déforestation diminue respectivement de 0,09 % et de 5,49 %.Conclusion. Pour réduire l’effet de la croissance démographique sur les écosystèmes du Bassin, il faut améliorer le niveau de vie des populations. Description of the subject. Forests play an important role in the fight against climate change. This is the case of the Congo Basin, which is the second largest tropical forest ecosystem after the Amazon. Beyond the role played on the carbon cycle, these Central African forests have provided the means of subsistence for the 60 million people who live there or live nearby. The preservation of the Congo Basin forests is thus at the center of international concerns, in particular through the United Nations 2021 agenda promoting sustainable management and sustainable management of forests.Objective. The objective of this article is to assess the effects of population growth on the sustainable development of the countries of the Congo Basin (BC).Methods. Using panel data covering the period 1990-2018 from WDI World Bank, UNDP DATABASE and United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019), the STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population and technology) and the Generalized Moments Estimation (GMM) method in dynamic panel.Results. The results show that when the population increases by 1,00 % in BC countries, the deforestation rate increases by 0.3 % and when the urban population increases by 1.00 % in BC countries, the deforestation rate increases by 5. 22 %. On the other hand, when the GDP/Capita and the HDI increase by 1.00 %, the deforestation rate decreases by 0.09 % and 5.49 % respectively.Conclusion. To reduce the effect of population growth on the ecosystems of the Basin, the standard of living of the populations must be improved.

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“…Even if the renewal capacity of natural resources is unbounded, a sustainable path may not always be available; this depends on the difference between the stationary fertility rate and mortality rate [ 28 ], i.e., population size. In recent years, most studies on sustainable population size have been focused on the relationship between various factors, such as population growth and depletion of resources [ 29 , 30 ], global warming and urban population growth [ 28 , 31 ], population growth caused by migration and its resources and social effects [ 32 ], and population growth and political equality [ 33 ]. In addition, the environment is an essential “factor of production” and source of important welfare services to people [ 28 ], and many studies have focused on the interaction between global or regional population size and the environment [ 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 ], although few studies have been conducted on the effect of regulation of population size on sustainable local environmental development [ 39 ].…”

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Population Size at the County Level under Limited Development Policy Constraints: Case Study of the Xihaigu Mountain Area, Northwest China

Chen

Song

Xin-gang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Understanding the extent to which demographic changes may affect the prospects of sustainable development is a priority for both academics and policy makers. Accordingly, we attempted to explore the population growth limit of the Xihaigu Mountain area in China. To analyze the optimum population at the county level, the relationship curve between population size and environmental quality was fitted using panel data (2009–2018). The sustainable population size of each county was determined by integrating the population carrying capacity of land resources and optimum population. The results show that the relationship between regional population size and environmental quality conforms to an inverted N-shaped curve. To maintain sustainable development, the population size of Tongxin, Xiji, and Haiyuan should be in the range of 320,800–379,800, 315,800–416,900, and 333,500–416,900, respectively. The current population size of other counties should be maintained, and their surplus construction lands are acceptable to be used for environmentally friendly industries rather than population expansion. We demonstrated a practical approach to calculate a dynamic range of population size under the dual constraints of resource and environment, which overcomes the shortcoming of only considering the maximum carrying capacity to a limited extent. We also identified the population boundary in a “steady-state economy” and quantified planetary boundaries of population in Xihaigu Mountain area using a dynamic sustainable population size. The findings provide decision-making references for the local government.

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The return of Malthus? Resource constraints in an era of declining population growth

Cited by 10 publications

References 27 publications

Model aspect of the study of the processes of sustainable development of socio-economic systems

Model aspect of the study of the processes of sustainable development of socio-economic systems

Croissance démographique et développement durable : Cas des pays du Bassin du Congo

Sustainable Population Size at the County Level under Limited Development Policy Constraints: Case Study of the Xihaigu Mountain Area, Northwest China

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