The return of ‘vulnerability’ and Raúl Prebisch’s early thinking on the ‘Argentine business cycle’

O'Connell, Arturo

doi:10.18356/84e6f9f4-en

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…For Prebisch, the cycle was the characteristic form of growth of the capitalistic economy and global in nature, dominated by developments in core economies. He developed his analysis of cycles mainly in his lesser-known earlier work at the Banco de la Nación and Central Bank of Argentina in the 1920s and 1930s, subsequently elaborated in a series of lectures during 1945-1948 in Buenos Aires under the title "Political Economy (Economic Dynamics)" (O'CONNELL, 2001;CALDENTEY et al, 2018;.…”

Section: O Nexo Entre Commodities E Finanças: Crescimentos Gêmeos E Golpe Duplomentioning

confidence: 99%

The Commodity-Finance Nexus: Twin Boom and Double Whammy

Akyüz¹

2020

Rev. econ. contemp.

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International commodity prices and capital inflows to developing countries are increasingly synchronized, subjecting commodity-dependent economies to double boom-bust cycles. On the one hand, there are a number of common monetary factors, notably international interest rates and the exchange rate of the dollar that influence commodity prices and capital inflows in the same direction. On the other hand, commodity prices and capital inflows reinforce each other through their influence on economic activity in developing countries. Capital inflows move pro-cyclically with commodity prices, aggravating both positive and negative external trade shocks. This synchronization has greatly heightened the vulnerability of commodity-dependent developing economies to global boom-bust cycles.

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Section: O Nexo Entre Commodities E Finanças: Crescimentos Gêmeos E Golpe Duplomentioning

confidence: 99%

The Commodity-Finance Nexus: Twin Boom and Double Whammy

Akyüz¹

2020

Rev. econ. contemp.

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“…In the writings examined in this paper, covering the period from 1820 to 1944, he identified and analysed, albeit not with the same depth and detail, eight business cycles, the majority of which took place under a convertibility regime. 4 As did other economists at the time, Prebisch perceived cycles as recurrent and inevitable facts of economic life, or more precisely as "natural" economic 4 See Cortés Conde (2001), Gurrieri (2001), Mallorquín (20062007) and O'Connell (2001) for different analyses of Prebisch's thinking on business cycles and monetary issues. According to our analysis, Prebisch's cycles include 1820Prebisch's cycles include to 18261867to 18801881to 18851886to 18911899(1903) to 191419271935to 1937and 1939-1944.…”

Section: Argentine Business Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Portrait of the economist as a young man: Raúl Prebisch’s evolving views on the business cycle and money, 1919-1949

Caldentey¹,

Vernengo²

2012

CEPAL Review

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This paper analyses Raúl Prebisch's lesser-known contributions to economic theory, related to the business cycle and heavily informed by the Argentine experience. His views of the cycle emphasize the common nature of the cycle in the centre and the periphery as one unified phenomenon. While his rejection of orthodoxy is less than complete, some elements of what would become a more Keynesian position are developed. In particular, there is a preoccupation with the management of the balance of payments and the need for capital controls as a macroeconomic management tool, well before Keynes and White's plans led to the Bretton Woods agreement. In the process it is clear that Prebisch developed several ideas that are still relevant for understanding cyclical fluctuations in the periphery and that he became more concerned with the ability to take advantage of cyclical booms to maintain sustained economic growth.

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“…This tribute began with a hitherto unpublished interview with Prebisch by Pollock, Kerner and Love (2001) and continued with an essay in which Ocampo (2001) connected certain key ideas in Prebisch's thinking with the Latin American development agenda for the new century. The tribute section also included papers by Rodríguez (2001), O'Connell (2001 and Gurrieri (2001), the last of whom set out to present Prebisch's early thinking, and by Cortés Conde (2001), a historical essay on the years in which Prebisch worked in different positions within the Argentinean government, especially at the Central Bank. The section concluded with papers by Dosman (2001) and González (2001), the first on State-market relations from the standpoint of Prebisch's evolving "manifesto" and the second focusing on the industrialization process in Latin America as viewed by Prebisch and eclac, in contrast to the corresponding processes in the United States (from the perspective of Alexander Hamilton) and Germany (Frederick List) and a more general case as seen through the neoclassical prism of John Stuart Mill.…”

Section: IVmentioning

confidence: 99%