The Return to College: Selection and Dropout Risk

Hendricks, Lutz; Leukhina, Oksana

doi:10.1111/iere.12297

Cited by 23 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Since e * it is a function of the state variables, t, h it−1 , θ i , and y i , we instrument for effort using the state variables, and run the second-stage regression reported in Table 16. 38 The regression indicates that, in our baseline model, effort does lower anticipated risk. Further, the effect is large.…”

Section: (18)mentioning

confidence: 86%

Raising College Access and Completion: How Much Can Free College Help?

Ferreyra¹,

Garriga²,

Martin-Ocampo³

et al. 2020

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Free college proposals have become increasingly popular in many countries of the world. To evaluate their potential effects, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of college enrollment, performance, and graduation. A central piece of the model, student effort, has a direct effect on class completion, and an indirect effect in mitigating the risk of not completing a class or not remaining in college. We estimate the model using rich, student-level administrative data from Colombia, and use the estimates to simulate free college programs that differ in eligibility requirements. Among these, universal free college expands enrollment the most, but it does not affect graduation rates and has the highest per-graduate cost. Performance-based free college, in contrast, delivers a slightly lower enrollment expansion yet a greater graduation rate at a lower per-graduate cost. Relative to universal free college, performance-based free college places greater risk on students, but precisely for this reason leads them to better outcomes. Nonetheless, even performance-based free college fails to deliver a large increase in graduation rate, suggesting that additional, complementary policies might be required to elicit the large effort increase needed to raise graduation rates.

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Section: (18)mentioning

confidence: 86%

Raising College Access and Completion: How Much Can Free College Help?

Ferreyra¹,

Garriga²,

Martin-Ocampo³

et al. 2020

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show abstract

“…See Dynarski and Scott Clayton (2013) 37. In the context of our model, these policies would amount to changing parameters from the distribution of z in order to reach higher E(z) and lower V (z) 38. Clotfelter et al (2018), Evans et al (2017), Scrivener et al (2015) and Sommo et al (2018) document positive effects of these supports on graduation rates.…”

mentioning

confidence: 79%

“…37 These include remedial education, advising, mentoring, and tutoring. 38 Recent evidence (Deming and Walters 2017) indicates the effectiveness of directing funding to institutions for these supports. Indeed, in their examination of possible policies to raise graduation rates in the U.S., Avery et al (2019) conclude that need-based free college combined with higher funding to institutions might be the most costeffective policy.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Raising College Access and Completion: How Much Can Free College Help?

Ferreyra¹,

Garriga²,

Martin-Ocampo³

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Free college proposals have become increasingly popular in many countries of the world. To evaluate their potential effects, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of college enrollment, performance, and graduation. A central piece of the model, student effort, has a direct effect on class completion, and an indirect effect in mitigating the risk of not completing a class or not remaining in college. We estimate the model using rich, student-level administrative data from Colombia, and use the estimates to simulate free college programs that differ in eligibility requirements. Among these, universal free college expands enrollment the most, but it does not affect graduation rates and has the highest per-graduate cost. Performance-based free college, in contrast, delivers a slightly lower enrollment expansion yet a greater graduation rate at a lower per-graduate cost. Relative to universal free college, performance-based free college places a greater risk on students but is precisely this feature that delivers better outcomes. Nonetheless, the modest increase in graduation rates suggests that additional, complementary policies might be required to elicit the large effort increase needed to raise graduation rates.

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“…8 We are also informed by the work that emphasizes the bias imparted to measured returns to college by the possibility of noncompletion. Hendricks and Leukhina (2018) allow for selection effects and argue that two layers of selection are important: weakly prepared students disproportionately fail to enroll in college, and those who do enroll fail to complete at high rates. 9 Our model allows for both effects to operate and thereby avoids overstating the payoff to college.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Who Values Access to College

Athreya¹,

Ionescu²,

Neelakantan³

et al. 2019

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Through an empirically-disciplined human capital model, we demonstrate that the value of college varies dramatically across US high school completers. Roughly 40 percent place no value on the option to attend-despite the large public tuition subsidy. By contrast, a fourth of all attendees would enroll even absent the subsidy. The magnitude and pattern of variation suggests substantial potential for policy improvement: We show that simply redirecting the subsidy from individuals who always enroll towards a stock index fund for those who never enroll increases ex-ante welfare by 1 percent while preserving both enrollment and budget neutrality.

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The Return to College: Selection and Dropout Risk

Cited by 23 publications

References 67 publications

Raising College Access and Completion: How Much Can Free College Help?

Raising College Access and Completion: How Much Can Free College Help?

Raising College Access and Completion: How Much Can Free College Help?

Who Values Access to College

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