The rightward shift and electoral decline of social democratic parties under increasing inequality

Abstract

Recent electoral results reveal a pronounced decline in the fortunes of Social Democratic parties. Much of the decline debate has revolved around their rightward policy shifts, which have turned Social Democrats away from their founding principle of equality in an age of increasing inequality. Thus, this article examines the interconnections of these major changes in the Western political economy. In doing so, it contributes to the identification of income inequality as a key mechanism moderating Social Democratic policy offerings and their support. It does so through aggregate-level election results and individual-level survey responses on a sample of 22 advanced democracies, over 336 elections, from 1965-2019. Results reveal that rightward economic movements of Social Democrats significantly reduce their vote share under higher levels of income inequality or when they are combined with rightward socio-cultural movements. The findings provide an important explanation for the pronounced electoral decline of Social Democratic parties.

The implosion of radical right populism and the path forward for social democracy: Evidence from the 2019 Danish national election

“…These findings suggest that the defining voter movement in the 2019 Danish national election was mainly driven by preferences for equality and welfare—not preferences for tougher immigration policies, as has sometimes been argued. The findings hence support recent findings and arguments by Polacko (2022), Benedetto et al (2020), Abou‐Chadi and Wagner (2019), Loxbo et al (2021), Häusermann (2018), and Gingrich (2017), namely that social democratic parties need (and are able) to resort to their traditional strongholds of welfare and redistribution if they want to succeed electorally.…”

“…A classical strategy for social democratic parties (SDPs) is to resort to their historical issue ownership on welfare and redistribution (Kitschelt, 1994). Recent studies confirm that this issue, and perceived performance on it, is still important for the electoral fate of social democratic parties (Benedetto et al, 2020;Horn, 2021;Jylhä et al, 2019;Kurer, 2020;Polacko, 2022;Vlandas & Halikiopoulou, 2020). However, new class structures also contribute to a more fragmented electoral landscape concerning economic and social policies (Abou-Chadi & Wagner, 2020;Arndt, 2014;Benedetto et al, 2020;Häusermann, 2018;Kitschelt, 1994;Rennwald & Evans, 2014).…”

“…The Danish 2019 national election, in which the defining voter movement was voters migrating from the populist Danish People's Party (DPP) to the mainstream Social Democratic Party (SDP), provides an interesting counterpoint. This paper addresses a core question in the literature—whether social democratic parties have lost voters or can win voters back from populist right parties mainly via their position on immigration, or rather by their positioning on traditional issues of welfare and redistribution (Abou‐Chadi & Wagner, 2020; Benedetto et al, 2020; Horn, 2021; Polacko, 2022; Spoon & Klüver, 2020; van Spanje & de Graaf, 2018; Vlandas & Halikiopoulou, 2020). Based on a new data set from the Danish 2019 national election, this paper finds that the Danish SDP won over voters mainly due to stronger and more traditional left‐wing positioning on welfare and redistribution, whereas the party has not managed to completely “neutralize” the issue of immigration.…”

What Explains the Electoral Crisis of Social Democracy? A Systematic Review of the Literature

“…This negative long-term effect is in line with Schwander and Manow (2017), who demonstrate that the negative electoral effects of the German SPD's neoliberal turn took some time to unfold. Other studies indicate that the effect is contingent on additional factors, such as a proportional electoral system (Arndt 2014b), as this facilitates the voter defection witnessed in the German case, high income inequality (Polacko 2022) and low to moderate levels of welfare generosity (Loxbo et al 2021). In sum, the evidence indicates that the negative electoral effect of moving to the right unfolds over time and that its strength is contingent on the political and economic context.…”

“…Hypothesis 8 highlights the negative impact of union decline on social democrats. On the voter level, the literature paints a unanimous picture, since all studies controlling for individual union membership find that union members are more likely to vote for social democrats than non-union members (Abou-Chadi and Wagner 2019, 2020; Arndt and Rennwald 2016; Kweon 2018; Marx 2014; Milner 2021; Mosimann et al 2019; Polacko 2022; Rennwald and Pontusson 2021). Somewhat surprisingly, the effect is quite similar among working-class and middle-class voters (Mosimann et al 2019: 78–80).…”