The Rise of China and its Interplay with the Russian and Turkish Regimes

Abstract

How does the rise of China challenge the existing international order? What are the possible outcomes of the interplay between China’s rise and the current trajectory of the Russian and Turkish regimes? Based on a qualitative analysis, I find twomajor dilemmas for the current power dynamics have resulted from China’s challenging behavior in the international system. First, while China promotes steady relationships based on mutual interests facilitated by the rule-based international order, it also carries out actions which feed its aspirations for exploiting the current international institutions. Second, while China underlines the importance of a Westphalian style of sovereignty and non-interference, it also takes interventionist actions in both cyberspace and territorial space. Based on identification of ChinaRussia and China-Turkey interactions through the variations in the most ‘central’ domestic issues of the current governments in Russia and Turkey, I predict four possible outcomes, shedding light on the future policy directions in Russia and Turkey: 1) a prolongation of Putin’s campaign in Ukraine, 2) an acceleration in the process of de-dollarization, 3) lasting Chinese influence on Turkey’s Kurdish issue, and 4) an increase in Turkey’s tendency toward a Chinese-style ‘growth’ model.