The Rise of Outsiders in Latin America, 1980–2010

Abstract

One of the most significant developments in Latin American democracies since the beginning of the third wave of democratization is the rise to political prominence of outsider candidates in presidential elections. I use an original database of political outsiders in Latin America to examine the institutional factors that contribute to the emergence of political outsiders. Using a fixed effects variance decomposition (FEVD) model, I find that, in addition to the favorable conditions already identified in the literature—legitimacy crisis of traditional political parties and negative socioeconomic conditions—the rise of political outsiders is determined by institutional factors, such as nonconcurrent elections, compulsory voting rules, and reelection provisions.

Party Strength and Economic Growth

“…Constraints on leaders stem partly from the process of leadership selection, which in a strong party favors individuals with a demonstrated commitment to the party, usually those who have risen through the ranks. Organization men, not mavericks, are likely to emerge from a party-centered selection process (Carreras 2012). The chosen individual, having been thoroughly socialized in the party, is unlikely to work against its wider interests once installed in a top policymaking position.…”

“…Nor is it likely that a leader would be able to deviate from the party line, even if s/he so desired. Strong parties provide checks against wayward leaders, employing internal mechanisms of control, often of an informal nature (Panebianco 1988;Gehlbach & Keefer 2011, 2012Svolik 2012). Indeed, party activists and officials may resist actions by the executive if they conflict with their interests and the long-term interests of the party (Stokes 1999).…”

A Democracia, a Sociedade E Os Partidos Políticos: Uma Análise Da Eventual Existência De Uma Crise Das Organizações Partidárias

“…As suas funções também devem ser objeto de análise. Estas consistem, teoricamente, na mobilização 9 Entende-se como um outsider aquele candidato ou agente político que consegue destaque não através dos partidos já estabelecidos, mas como políticos independentes ou mesmo partidos ou associações novas no sistema (Carreras, 2010). vol.…”

When the Victor Cannot Claim the Spoils: Institutional Incentives for Professionalizing Patronage States

“…Similarly, the patronage or professionalization choice of the increasing number of political outsiders coming to power, in particular in Latin America (see Carreras, 2012), is shaped by their ability to claim the spoils of the state. As aforementioned, studies have yielded contradictory results as to whether we may expect outsider Presidents to professionalize to deprive opponents of patronage control, or politicize to develop their own patron-client networks.…”