The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models

Abstract

1. Current modelling approaches to predict spatially explicit biodiversity responses to climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of climate on species. Integration of spatiotemporal land-cover scenarios is still limited. Current approaches either regard land cover as constant boundary conditions, or rely on general, typically globally defined land-use scenarios. This is problematic as it disregards the complex synergistic effects of climate and land use on biodiversity at the regional scale, as biophysical, economic, and social issues important for regional land-use decisions are also affected by climate change. To realistically predict climate impacts on biodiversity, it is therefore necessary to consider both, the direct effect of climate change on biodiversity, and its indirect effect on biodiversity via land-use change. 2. In this review and perspective paper, we outline how biodiversity models could be better integrated with regional, climate-driven land-use models. We provide an overview of empirical and modelling approaches to both land-use (LU) and biodiversity (BD) change, focusing on how integration has been attempted. We then analyse how LU and BD model properties, such as scales, inputs, and outputs, can be matched and identify potential integration challenges and opportunities. 3. We found LU integration in BD models has been frequently attempted. By contrast, integrating the role of BD in models of LU decisions is largely lacking. As a result, bi-directional effects remain largely understudied. Only few integrated LU-BD socio-ecological models have assessed climate change effects on LU and no study has yet investigated the relative contribution of direct vs. indirect effects of climate change on BD. 4. There is a large potential for model integration given the overlap on spatial scales, although challenges remain with respect to spatial scale, temporal dynamics, investigation of indirect effects, and bi-directionality, including feeding back to climate models. Efforts to better understand human decisions, eco-evolutionary dynamics, connection between terrestrial and aquatic systems, and format standardization of modelling outputs and empirical data should improve future models. Integrating biodiversity feedbacks into land-use and climate models requires modelling innovations, but should be feasible.

Life-history adaptation under climate warming magnifies the agricultural footprint of a cosmopolitan insect pest

“…Clearly, the redistribution of species has already caused massive ramifications for the Earth's ecosystems 112 , and the fear is now that future climate warming will allow insect pests to colonize new habitats 1,2,4,7,11,12 . To mitigate these effects, management strategies need to be equipped with accurate predictive models 13,14,82,[113][114][115] , as well as an understanding of the limits to their accuracy 43,[116][117][118] . It is our hope that our study can contribute towards this development by i) providing general insights into the repeatability and mode of thermal adaptation in life-history of insect pests, which can inform on the general accuracy of ecological forecasting of species responses to climate change, and ii) by emphasizing the need for incorporating a mechanistic and genetic basis of thermal niche evolution into eco-evolutionary forecasts, on which improved management decision can be based 6,13,17,82,83,113,119,120 .…”

Predicting extinctions with species distribution models

“…Ecological processes are highly scale dependent. Climatic conditions may govern the broad-scale species distribution while the fine-scale distribution may be determined by local resources (Guisan and Thuiller 2005) For land use, which is another major determinant of species distribution, future scenarios are less well developed and more uncertain due to unknown political and economic development (Cabral et al 2022).…”

Hybridization may aid evolutionary rescue of an endangered East African passerine

“…However, coupling our ecological model with a land-use change model would be a promising avenue to deepening our understanding of possible conservation trajectories in the Taita Hills (cf. Cabral et al, 2022).…”