The Role Of Airborne Moments In The Spread Of The Coronavirus And The Course Of The Pandemic

Abstract

A numerical study using Weather Research Forecast model and Lagrangian HYSPLIT dispersion model was conducted to understand the meteorological factors influencing the transport and mixing of the blob of Corona virus-filled micro-particles (of radius 0.12mm) released into the atmosphere due to coughing, sneezing by infected patient. The study is offered as an important contribution demonstrating the role of local atmospheric dynamics in coronavirus spread during the period of March 9 – April 6, 2020 in New York City, the epicenter of the coronavirus in the USA. The results demonstrate that from the initial time of release, the virus can spread up to 30 minutes in air, covering a 200-m radius at a time, moving 1 – 2 km from the original source. Turbulence energy containing large-scale horizontal “rolls” and vertical thermal “updrafts” and “downdrafts” contribute to transport and advection processes, before small-scale turbulent eddies rapidly mix and dilute virus concentration.