The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise

Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon; Krey, Volker; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Jiang, Kejun; Kainuma, Mikiko; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Shukla, P.R.

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.09.003

Cited by 134 publications

(68 citation statements)

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“…Studies at the global level (such as in Krey et al, 2014;Weyant and Kriegler, 2014) and regional level (Calvin et al, 2012;Clarke et al, 2012, for Asia;Clarke et al, 2014aClarke et al, , 2014bFawcett et al, 2014, for the USA; Knopf et al, 2013, for Europe) come to the same conclusion in this respect. For large-scale low-CO 2 electricity generation, renewables like solar and wind energy dominate the present view of many analysts on future global energy systems.…”

Section: Discussion Conclusion and Policy And Strategy Implicationssupporting

confidence: 58%

“…Given our focus on Latin America, our work also pertains to the UN's Sustainable Energy for All initiative (UN, 2012), even while we here do not explicitly nor extensively assess energy transformation in relation to economic development. Technology transformation pathways have recently been studied in a number of publications, both at the global level (such as in Krey et al, 2014;Weyant and Kriegler, 2014) and regional level (Calvin et al, 2012;Clarke et al, 2012, for Asia;Clarke et al, 2014aClarke et al, , 2014bFawcett et al, 2014, for the USA; Knopf et al, 2013, for Europe). In this paper we attempt to put our work on energy technology transitions in Latin America into a broader perspective, by comparing it to the existing literature on the subject matter and by reflecting on questions like how the decarbonization scenarios presented here differ from (or are similar to) those reported in the literature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

et al. 2016

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Energy Technology Roll-Out for Climate Change Mitigation: A Multi-Model Study for Latin America van der Zwaan, B.; Kober, T.; Calderon, S. ; Clarke, L.; Daenzer, K. ; Kitous, A.; Labriet, M. ; Lucena, A.F.P.; Octaviano, C.; Di Sbroiavacca, N. Published in: Energy Economics DOI:10.1016/j.eneco. 2015.11.019 Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): van der Zwaan, B., Kober, T., Calderon, S., Clarke, L., Daenzer, K., Kitous, A., ... Di Sbroiavacca, N. (2016 General rightsIt is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Disclaimer/Complaints regulationsIf you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: http://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible. In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO 2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be cost-optimal in the energy sector to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison study and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from different models as well as different types of models (general versus partial equilibrium). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they play a large role in energy supply in all scenarios we inspect. This is especially true for stringent climate policy scenarios, for instance because the use of biomass in power plants in combination with CCS can yield negative CO 2 emissions. We find that hydropower, which today contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in Latin America, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, typically by about 50%, but potentially by as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two-to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050. We find that in our climate policy scenarios renewable energy overall expands typically at double-digit growth rates annually, but there is substantial spread in model results for specific options such as wind and solar power: the climate policies that we simulate raise wind power in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, ...

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Section: Discussion Conclusion and Policy And Strategy Implicationssupporting

confidence: 58%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

et al. 2016

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“…Non-CO 2 gases contribute to 10-20% in terms of abatement, and represent a significant share of residual emissions, since some emissions such as CH 4 and N 2 O gases from agriculture are hard to mitigate 53 . The overall picture is that, while energy supply has the highest mitigation potential, regional characteristics imply different patterns of mitigation across sectors 54 , which will also be influenced by the stringency of the climate target 13,55 .…”

Section: Figure 2 Herementioning

confidence: 99%

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

et al. 2014

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Integrated assessment models can help quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post 2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to 2°C. We provide key information for all the major economies such as the year of emission peaking, the regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.So far, international climate policy has been ineffective in curbing the rise of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Still, ambitious climate targets such as the 2°C target require a phase-out of global emissions by the end of the century, and an active participation of all world regions in climate policy 1 . Given the many obstacles to global cooperative action on climate change, the question remains how diverse national climate policies can be coordinated and strengthened globally. Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Durban Platform for Enhanced 2 Action 2 provides an important platform for a post-2020 international climate agreement. It contains several innovative elements, most notably a focus on the major economies that goes beyond the traditional divide between Annex I and non-Annex I countries. The Durban platform calls for a new climate treaty to be agreed in 2015 and implemented as early as 2020. The recently announced USChina climate deal and the EU climate framework provide encouraging steps forwards, but aligning the incentives of the major emitters in pursuing stringent climate policies remains a challenge. In this paper, we aim at assessing the implications of post 2020 climate policies with specific reference to the major economies. We provide quantitative estimates of regional emission budgets, timing of emission peaking, and distribution of mitigation costs. We examine the role of carbon markets and different burden sharing schemes to alleviate distributional inequalities and finance the investment needs in low carbon mitigation technologies. In order to quantify these policy relevant variables, we resort to global models.Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are tools designed to investigate the implications of achieving climate and other objectives in an integrated and rigorous framework. They are numerical models that account for major interactions among energy, land-use, economic and climate systems. Model differ in the economic, technological and sectoral representation and in the way they are solved, with some models maximizing an inter-temporal objective function (such as economic activity) and others simulating a set of equilibria (see the SOM for individual model description and references to documentation). Models generate global long-term scenarios for a number of regions or countries that ca...

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“…Nine scenarios were explored with the ReMIND model for the purpose of this analysis (see Table S1). They are based on scenarios specified within the Asian Modeling Exercise (Calvin et al 2012;Luderer et al 2012a, b). We consider two types of climate mitigation scenarios: The stabilization scenarios meet a 450 ppm CO2e target, i.e.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate change mitigation?

et al. 2013

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The ability to directly remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere allows the decoupling of emissions and emissions control in space and time. We ask the question whether this unique feature of carbon dioxide removal technologies fundamentally alters the dynamics of climate mitigation pathways. The analysis is performed in the coupled energyeconomy-climate model ReMIND using the bioenergy with CCS route as an application of CDR technology. BECCS is arguably the least cost CDR option if biomass availability is not a strongly limiting factor. We compare mitigation pathways with and without BECCS to explore the impact of CDR technologies on the mitigation portfolio. Effects are most pronounced for stringent climate policies where BECCS is a key technology for the effectiveness of carbon pricing policies. The decoupling of emissions and emissions control allows prolonging the use of fossil fuels in sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. It also balances the distribution of mitigation costs across future generations. CDR is not a silver bullet technology. The largest part of emissions reductions continues to be provided by direct mitigation measures at the emissions source. The value of CDR lies in its flexibility to alleviate the most costly constraints on mitigating emissions.

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The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise

Cited by 134 publications

References 32 publications

Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

Is atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate change mitigation?

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