The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective

Abstract

In commemorating the 40th anniversary of Risk Analysis, this article takes a retrospective look at some of the ways in which decision analysis (as a "sibling field") has contributed to the development both of the journal, and of risk analysis as a field. I begin with some early foundational papers from the first decade of the journal's history. I then review a number of papers that have applied decision analysis to risk problems over the years, including applications of related methods such as influence diagrams, multicriteria decision analysis, and risk matrices. The article then reviews some recent trends, from roughly the last five years, and concludes with observations about the parallel evolution of risk analysis and decision analysis over the decades-especially with regard to the importance of representing multiple stakeholder perspectives, and the importance of behavioral realism in decision models. Overall, the extensive literature surveyed here supports the view that the incorporation of decision-analytic perspectives has improved the practice of risk analysis.

Forty Years of Risk Analysis: A Scientometric Overview

“…While the authors fully agree that this is a very valid suggestion which would provide very interesting insights, this is beyond the intended scope of this article. Similar to other articles providing overviews and reflections on the developments of Risk Analysis , such as Bier (2020), North (2020), and other articles mentioned in the introduction, the intention here is to focus on the contents of the published research, rather than the history of the society. An additional reason not to address the history of the society in the context of this article is that the most recent authoritative description of the history of the Society for Risk Analysis dates from 2003, in a publication by Deisler and Schwing (2003), with an extended article by these authors published in the journal (Thompson, Deisler, & Schwing, 2005).…”

“…Johnson and Swedlow (2021) reviewed the contributions of cultural theory to risk research, whereas Siegrist and Árvai (2020) and Balog‐Way, McComas, and Besley (2020) reflected on the research areas of risk perception and risk communication, respectively. Other authors provided retrospective perspectives on aspects at the nexus between risk analysis and decision making, with Webler and Tuler (2021) reflecting on evidence about and future prospects of public participation in risk decision making, Bier (2020) reviewing and commenting on the role of decision analysis in risk analysis, and North (2020) providing a perspective on the relations between risk analysis, decision analysis, causal analysis, and economics based on extensive personal experience. Reviews of the 40‐year research history focusing on specific risk‐related topics include the work by Gould (2021) on organizational risk management, and that of Wu and Rodricks (2020) on food safety risk assessment.…”

Machine learning and user interface for cyber risk management of water infrastructure

“…Risk management aims to focus the efforts on the significant threat scenarios and use appropriate techniques to convert data into valuable analytics for decision‐makers (Bier, 2020). As we define cyber incident detection as an anomaly inference problem and approach to the solution from a data‐driven perspective, it is essential to acknowledge the corresponding challenges.…”

Editorial: Multivariate Probabilistic Modelling for Risk and Decision Analysis

“…The close relationship and interlaced development of risk analysis and decision theory are discussed in Bier [10]. The references therein cover recent applications as well as methodological advances.…”