The Role of Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors in Predicting Violent Recidivism: Intellectual Ability as a Possible Moderator?

Abstract

This study investigated which risk and protective factors, based on the 14 clinical indicators of the Historical-Clinical-Future Revised, significantly predicted violent recidivism in a sample of 315 male forensic psychiatric patients. Additionally, it was investigated whether these associations were moderated by intellectual ability. Regarding risk factors, a stronger influence of risky network members, and higher levels of hostility, impulsivity, and addiction significantly predicted violent recidivism. Likewise, regarding protective factors, poorer social and labor skills, and a lower degree of patient’s acceptance of crime responsibility were significant predictors of violent recidivism. Contrary to our expectations, better coping skills and more insight into risky behaviors that can lead to relapse also contributed significantly to an increased likelihood of violent recidivism. Intellectual ability had no significant moderating effect on the associations between the factors and violent recidivism. The results offer an insight into which factors need to be prioritized during treatment.

Violent Recidivism and Adverse Childhood Experiences in Forensic Psychiatric Patients With Impaired Intellectual Functioning

“…Some of these difficulties may increase the likelihood that patients with ID will reoffend after release from forensic institutions. For example, institutional misconduct has been shown to contribute to all types of recidivism, including violent, property, and other recidivism (Cochran et al, 2014), while finding work and stable housing have been associated with reduced recidivism (Garritsen et al, 2022;Jacobs & Gottlieb, 2020;Ramakers et al, 2017). Taken together, these findings suggest that individuals with IQs between 70 and 80 may also need additional help and support in their daily lives in closed forensic institutions to get the most benefit from their treatment.…”