The role of EEG in predicting post-stroke seizures and an updated prognostic model (SeLECT-EEG)

Abstract

Importance: Seizures significantly impact outcomes after stroke, underscoring the need for accurate predictors of post-stroke epilepsy. Objective: To evaluate whether electrographic biomarkers detected early after acute ischemic stroke enhance the prediction of post-stroke epilepsy. Design: Multicenter cohort study with data collected from 2002 to 2022 and final data analysis completed in July 2024. Setting: Eleven international cohorts from tertiary referral centers, six with available EEG data. Participants: 1,105 stroke survivors with neuroimaging-confirmed ischemic stroke (mean age 71, 54% male) who underwent EEG within the first 7 days post-stroke. Exposure: Presence of electrographic biomarkers detected through EEG. Main Outcome and Measures: Occurrence of post-stroke epilepsy. The impact of electrographic biomarkers on the risk of post-stroke epilepsy was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted through inverse probability weighting. Results: Among 1,105 participants, 119 (11%) developed post-stroke seizures. Epileptiform activity (lateralized periodic discharges, interictal epileptiform discharges, and electrographic seizures; (odds ratio [OR] 2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3-3.0, p=0.001)) and regional slowing (OR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.2-2.9, p=0.004) were independently associated with developing post-stroke epilepsy. The novel SeLECT-EEG prognostic model, specifically developed for stroke survivors without acute symptomatic seizures (ASyS),, outperformed the previous gold-standard model (SeLECT2.0; 0.71 [95% CI: 0.65-0.76]) with a concordance statistic of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71-0.80; p < 0.001). Conclusions and Relevance: Electrographic findings significantly enhance the prediction of post-stroke epilepsy beyond previously known clinical risk factors and may serve as prognostic biomarkers. The integration of these biomarkers into the SeLECT-EEG model in patients without acute symptomatic seizures provides a more accurate prognostic tool for early post-stroke epilepsy prediction.