The role of expectation in innovation evolution: Exploring hype cycles

Shi, Yuwei; Herniman, J.

doi:10.1016/j.technovation.2022.102459

Cited by 23 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…In the traditional technology life cycle or S-curve model, 'the early phases of innovation are marked by a rapid rise in expectations of the innovation, toward the peak of inflated expectations and then a rapid decline through the trough of disillusionment, leading to early adoptions and rapid market growth' (Shi & Herniman, 2022). The S-curve growth models have been extensively applied for forecasting, estimation, and transformation of technologies and innovations (Christensen, 2014;Kucharavy & Roland, 2011;Rogers, 2014).…”

Section: Methods -The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Technology adoption or diffusion models estimate the process by which an innovation is diffused and how technologies are adopted at end user level (Rogers et al, 2014). For more than a half century, innovation research and practice has been dominated by diffusion Scurve models (Shi & Herniman, 2022). This growth curve model has been widely utilized for predicting technological change rates, detecting probable technological ruptures, and in determining the limits of particular technology adoption (Nieto et al, 1998).…”

Section: Introduction and Study Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Adoption of Next Generation Digital Technology Utilizing the Adoption-Diffusion Model Fit: The Case of Mobile Payments Interface in an Emerging Economy

Singh¹,

Singh²,

Singh³

2023

ACCESS

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The progress and diffusion of next-generation digital technologies are having an enormous effect on industries, innovation, and society. Innovative mobile transaction platforms are becoming the dominant payment system in major emerging economies. This study focuses on estimating the future trend and analyzing the pattern and rate of adoption of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) in India. UPI is not only decreasing the share of credit and debit cards and other payment modes but also reducing the reliance on cash in the economy. The main aim of this study is to estimate the future trend and analyze the pattern and rate of adoption of UPI in India. Utilizing the S-shaped growth cycle, we discuss the technology diffusion models and find that the Harvey model fits the data better than the Logistic and Gompertz ones. UPI transactions is likely to increase from 45.97 billion in 2021-22 to 643.76 billion in 2030-31. Further, monetary value of UPI transactions is also projected to grow sharply, from Rs.84.18 trillion in 2021-22 to Rs.835.77 trillion in 2030. Thus, UPI driven expenditure per person per day is likely to increase from Rs.165 in 2021-22 to Rs.1500 in 2030 Results predict that UPI based transactions is likely to increase at manifold levels, both in volume and value terms, having important implications for the economy, especially for payments app developers, internet service providers, the national regulatory agencies, particularly in view of UPI security related risks.

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Section: Methods -The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introduction and Study Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Adoption of Next Generation Digital Technology Utilizing the Adoption-Diffusion Model Fit: The Case of Mobile Payments Interface in an Emerging Economy

Singh¹,

Singh²,

Singh³

2023

ACCESS

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Section: Methods -The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untitled

2022

ACCESS

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Innovation is indispensable to the growth of prosperity. A breakthrough in the field of innovation requires changing the attitude towards innovation activity among entrepreneurs and society as a whole. To carry out systematic, purposeful work in the direction of constant improvement of the regulatory framework in order to comprehensively stimulate the development of effective priority, public and social directions of the small economy. Increasing support for small businesses should be an important part of state economic policy, which can be implemented through state regulation of small business development.The mentioned problems of a debatable nature are on the agenda in the world and require the participation of scientists and practitioners in finding the right solutions to global challenges.The main idea of this journal is to provide a place for discussions and information sharing, creating a common concept, principles, methodologies, methods, models, technologies and systems for making management decisions in conditions of uncertainty, risk, danger, instability and crisis for sustainable and viable economic systems, ecological and innovative economy projects.In 2022, we continued to promote and index the journal "Access to Science, Business, Innovation in Digital Economy" and it was included in the established and prestigious academic databases ERIHPLUS and WoS, and the undeniable quality and recognition was accompanied by indexing in WoS of all articles since the journal's creation in 2020.

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“…Gartner Hype Cycles have been used to analyse the technological maturity of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), Blockchain and other widely popular (Industry 4.0) technologies. They are also used in innovation application decision-making [19,20]. [17] This paper aims to investigate the current and planned usage of cobots in manufacturing companies, along with possible reasons for the slow growth in the implementation of CRAs in the industry and what connections can be drawn based on the Gartner Hype Cycle.…”

Section: Gartner Hype Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Bridging the Hype Cycle of Collaborative Robot Applications

Salunkhe,

Romero,

Stahre

et al. 2023

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology

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This paper investigates manufacturing companies' current and planned usage of collaborative robots along with possible reasons for the observed slow growth in implementing Collaborative Robot Applications (CRAs) in the industry. The paper also discusses whether similarities can be seen in the Gartner Hype Cycle for technology adoption. Findings from an industrial survey suggest increasingly positive attitudes towards using CRAs in manufacturing and final assembly operations as tools and support mechanisms aiding human operators. Better methodologies and best practices are urgently needed for successful CRA implementation and efficient manufacturing human-robot collaboration design.

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The role of expectation in innovation evolution: Exploring hype cycles

Cited by 23 publications

References 58 publications

Predicting Adoption of Next Generation Digital Technology Utilizing the Adoption-Diffusion Model Fit: The Case of Mobile Payments Interface in an Emerging Economy

Predicting Adoption of Next Generation Digital Technology Utilizing the Adoption-Diffusion Model Fit: The Case of Mobile Payments Interface in an Emerging Economy

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Bridging the Hype Cycle of Collaborative Robot Applications

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