The role of gun supply in 1980s and 1990s youth violence

Abstract

Youth violence surged between 1985 and 1994. We argue that a positive supply shock in autoloading handguns played an important role. By the late 1970s, computer numeric control technology had fallen in cost and the number of installed machines increased by 690% from 1978 to 1988. Consumer durable prices fell throughout this period, including the easily machined autoloading handguns. We document a steep fall in handgun prices, leading to predictable changes in purchasing among all American demographics. Local proxies of gun access predict changes in violence over this period as well or better than measures of crack market activity.