The Role of Heuristics and Biases in Complex Choices

Abstract

Many choices are complex. These choices entail consideration of multiple variables characterized by non-linear interactions. Prior research into the complex choice process of people neglects two categories of major choice determinants: heuristics and biases. This research takes on the challenge of integrating such behavior determinants into the study of complex choices. We do so using a new experimental paradigm in which participants tune on-screen dials that represent choice variables. Through their tuning efforts, participants can discover information about the choice space. Specifically, this new paradigm allows us to document how anchoring and framing effects impact the complex choice process. We find that loss framing incites participants to expend more effort examining choice variables before selecting an option. An aspirational anchor, on the other hand, was correlated with decreased search effort by participants. Interestingly, the two did not share an interaction. Additionally, when participants did not have an aspirational anchor, the data suggest they relied on prior experience for an anchor value.

The Role of Heuristics and Biases During Complex Choices with an AI Teammate

“…Since this behavior would likely have an outsized impact on any analysis, we decided to remove this participant from the data set, leaving 397 observations. We report participants' solo efforts in a companion paper (Gurney, Miller, and Pynadath 2023). We found that when working alone, the four-peak landscapes were more challenging than the one-peak, that both anchoring and framing yielded significant main effects on participants' choice quality, and that doing the one-peak task first was correlated with better outcomes on the four-peak task.…”

“…A blossoming corner of behavioral science is working to understand the nuance of human judgment and decision making during complex choice. A complex choice is one in which the relationships between the variables under consideration are nonlinear, which means that even when a choice is characterized by a small number of variables, their interactions can render optimization intractable (Gurney, Miller, and Pynadath 2023). Obvious examples of complex choices are home buying, career moves, and mate selection.…”

The Role of Heuristics and Biases during Complex Choices with an AI Teammate

“…Since this behavior would likely have an outsized impact on any analysis, we removed this participant from the data set, leaving 397 observations. We report participants' solo efforts in a companion paper (Gurney, Miller, and Pynadath 2023). We found that when working alone, the four-peak landscapes were more challenging than the one-peak, that both anchoring and framing yielded significant main effects on participants' choice quality, and that doing the one-peak task first was correlated with better outcomes on the four-peak task.…”

“…A complex choice is one in which the relationships between the variables under consideration are nonlinear. Such a relationship means that even when only a few variables characterize a choice, their interactions can render optimization intractable (Gurney, Miller, and Pynadath 2023). Obvious examples of complex choices are home buying, career moves, and mate selection.…”