Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and is characterized by episodes of acute exacerbations. Finding a systemic biomarker that reliably predicts outcome after an acute exacerbation remains a major challenge. Heat shock protein 27 (HSP27) has been previously studied in COPD, however, urine excretion trajectory and prognostic value after an exacerbation is unknown.Methods: In this retrospective post hoc analysis of a prospective study that included 253 COPD patients who were hospitalized for acute exacerbation, 207 patients were analyzed. Urine and serum were sampled at admission, discharge, and 180 days after discharge; urine excretion trajectory was analyzed and correlated with clinicopathological and survival data.Results: HSP27 urine excretion increased after an exacerbation episode [1.8% admission, 1.8% discharge, 2.3% 180 days after discharge (P=0.091)]. In severely ill patients (GOLD IV) this course was even more distinct [1.6% admission, 2.1% discharge, 2.8% 180 days after discharge (P=0.007)]. Furthermore, fractional HSP27 urine excretion at discharge was increased in GOLD IV patients (P=0.031). In Kaplan-Meier and