The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis

Li, Sihan; Otto, Friederike E. L.

doi:10.1007/s10584-022-03344-9

Cited by 21 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Then, the modelbased estimate and the observations-based estimate are combined to give an overarching attribution statement (synthesis). The synthesis is calculated using two approaches described below, with further detail and equations available in Li and Otto (2022). In this particular study, the final uncertainty reported in the overarching attribution statement combines these two approaches.…”

Section: Multi-model Attributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, ignoring model uncertainties beyond the model spread (i.e. ignoring model biases that are shared between the models used and, therefore, cannot be detected by differences between them, see also Li and Otto 2022), the weighted average of the combined model-based estimate (dark red bar) and the observations-based estimate (blue bar) is calculated and shown as magenta bars in Fig. 8.…”

Section: Multi-model Attributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…8(a-b). The extended uncertainty bar is calculated based on Equations 17 and 18 of Li and Otto (2022) using the log() of input values for PRs (transforming the results back using ex p() of the result) and using log(1 + data/100) for the intensity change (results obtained by using 100 * (−1 + ex p(data)) of the resulting value). We note that the larger uncertainty range based on the unweighted mean was originally designed to give more weight to the observations in cases where the model and observations disagree, possibly due to a model bias shared by the used models.…”

Section: Multi-model Attributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

Tradowsky,

Philip,

Kreienkamp

et al. 2023

Climatic Change

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In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage within Germany and the Benelux countries. After the event, a hydrological assessment and a probabilistic event attribution analysis of rainfall data were initiated and complemented by discussing the vulnerability and exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as a covariate in a generalised extreme value distribution fitted to observational and model data, exploiting the dependence on GMST to estimate how anthropogenic climate change affects the likelihood and severity of extreme events. Rainfall accumulations in Ahr/Erft and the Belgian Meuse catchment vastly exceeded previous observed records. In regions of that limited size the robust estimation of return values and the detection and attribution of rainfall trends are challenging. However, for the larger Western European region it was found that, under current climate conditions, on average one rainfall event of this magnitude can be expected every 400 years at any given location. Consequently, within the entire region, events of similar magnitude are expected to occur more frequently than once in 400 years. Anthropogenic climate change has already increased the intensity of the maximum 1-day rainfall event in the summer season by 3–19 %. The likelihood of such an event to occur today compared to a 1.2 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ C cooler climate has increased by a factor of 1.2–9. Models indicate that intensity and frequency of such events will further increase with future global warming. While attribution of small-scale events remains challenging, this study shows that there is a robust increase in the likelihood and severity of rainfall events such as the ones causing extreme impacts in July 2021 when considering a larger region.

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Section: Multi-model Attributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Multi-model Attributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Multi-model Attributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

Tradowsky,

Philip,

Kreienkamp

et al. 2023

Climatic Change

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Economic damage from flooding associated with Hurricane Harvey (Frame et al, 2020a;Frame et al, 2020c) 4. Economic damage from flooding associated with Typhoon Hagibis (Li and Otto, 2022) Recently Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al, (2022) has drawn attention to the drawbacks of the Attributable Costs method. They point out that it cannot be assumed that a FAR for an extreme weather or climate event is linearly related to the impact of that event.…”

Section: Attributable Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Human Influence on Climate Impacts cannot be Assessed with 'Attributable Costs'

Brown

2022

Preprint

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Estimating the human influence on extreme weather and climate events and their downstream impacts is relevant to many pertinent discussions around climate change, including potential legal claims of loss and damages and calculations of the social cost of carbon. Recently, a prominent method for doing this has emerged, referred to as the Attributable Costs method. In this method, the fraction of the risk of crossing a geophysical threshold attributable to Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) is multiplied by an impact (e.g., monetary economic damage) to calculate the ACC contribution to the impact. Here, I illustrate with a stylized example that the method produces misleading results when applied to weather phenomena on a continuum, where ACC alters the magnitude of the phenomena and/or the entire probability distribution of the phenomena. Specifically, the Attributable Costs method fails in these circumstances because impacts cannot be assumed to be zero when the geophysical threshold chosen to define the event is not crossed. This implies that the Attributable Costs method will systematically overestimate the contribution of ACC to impacts. We illustrate that a clearer way of conceptualizing the impacts attributable to ACC is to compare the expected losses of impacts using full probability distributions of the geophysical variable in question.

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“…Being located in the western North Pacific basin, Japan is also susceptible to frequent landfall of extratropical cyclones, which bring heavy rain and strong wind. A recent typhoon in Japan, Typhoon Hagibis, hit the eastern part of the country in October 2019 and caused an economic loss of over USD10 billion dollars (Li & Otto, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Impact of Natural Hazards on Individuals and Businesses in New Zealand

Roy¹

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<p>This thesis contains three essays on the impact of extreme weather events on individual income and business firms in New Zealand. In Chapter Two, we investigate the impact of the extratropical cyclones on individual income, combining the data from Statistics New Zealand’s Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) and the weather-related insurance claims data from the Earthquake Commission, New Zealand. The study sample covers the administrative longitudinal panel data of all the IRD-registered individual taxpayers between 2010 and 2019. We estimate a set of panel regressions with individual and time-fixed effects to assess the impact of extratropical cyclones on the affected individual’s annual income. The study findings show that income from salaries and wages is negatively affected by the cyclones across various specifications. Chapter Three provides an empirical analysis of the impact of floods on individual income in New Zealand between 2000 and 2019. Data from Statistics New Zealand’s Integrated Data Infrastructure and Historical Weather Events Catalogue from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) have been used to accomplish the study objective. The impact of floods on the affected individual’s annual income was assessed using panel regressions with individual and time-fixed effects. Despite the large floods-induced privately insured damages, floods had no significant impact on individual annual incomes from salary, wage, self-employment, and total income across various specifications. In Chapter Four, we investigate the impact of extratropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires on the profit and business equity of firms operating in New Zealand. We utilize a comprehensive administrative database of all firms from Statistics New Zealand’s Longitudinal Business Database from the financial year 2011- 2020 for extratropical cyclones and 2001-2020 for floods and wildfires. We find that the annual profit of extratropical cyclone-affected firms in agriculture, wholesale trade, financial and insurance services, and transportation sectors decreased significantly compared with the unaffected firms in the cyclone year. We also find that floods had no significant effect on the firm’s profit, and wildfires had no significant impact on the forestry firms’ profit. Besides, the study finding indicates no substantial evidence of the impact of extratropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires on the firms’ business equity.</p>

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The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis

Cited by 21 publications

References 23 publications

Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

When Human Influence on Climate Impacts cannot be Assessed with 'Attributable Costs'

Economic Impact of Natural Hazards on Individuals and Businesses in New Zealand

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