The Role of Low-Emission Hydrogen in Developing Countries: A Techno-Economic Assessment of Hydrogen Pathways in Colombia

Abstract

Climate change is driving the need for new approaches to energy production and utilization globally, contributing to the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low-emission hydrogen is recognized as a key energy vector for decarbonization, and numerous countries are currently evaluating strategies and roadmaps for its integration. Colombia, with its abundant renewable resources, is poised as a potential player in hydrogen production. The study presents an integrated techno-economic assessment of hydrogen’s role within Colombian energy mix. By employing an open energy system optimization model (OSeMOSYS), we analyzed a series of hydrogen scenarios from 2021 to 2050, including a sensitivity analysis. Our results show that hydrogen pathways will require 2-6.4 Mt/year in hydrogen production, 8-27 GW in installed capacity, and US$50-80 billion in investments, with favorable impacts in GHG mitigation, energy imports, and socioeconomic benefits. We use these findings to formulate an update to the targets of the current National Hydrogen Roadmap focused on a higher ambition to deploy a full hydrogen economy. Our open methodology provides a valuable tool for conducting further assessments in countries interested in defining hydrogen roadmaps.