The role of meteorological factors on mumps incidence among children in Guangzhou, Southern China

Lu, Jianyun; Yang, Zhicong; Ma, Xiaowei; Ma, Mengmeng; Zhang, Zhoubin

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0232273

Cited by 13 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…We found that the incidence of mumps was associated with the mean temperature and relative humidity in our study; this result was consistent with previous studies in Japan [ 13 ] , Mexico, [ 39 ] China, [ 16 ] and Taiwan [ 14 ] ; however, a study in the Czech Republic found that mumps was not associated with warmer and drier weather. [ 31 ] These inconsistent findings may be due to the different methodologies used in the studies or whether the interactive variables were controlled.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…[ 32 , 31 ] Temperature and humidity may influence the living conditions and infectivity of pathogens, as well as the risks of exposure and vulnerability of susceptible populations. [ 15 , 16 , 32 ] Warm and humid weather are advantageous for viral replication and evolution. Increases in temperature and relative humidity prolong the virus survival time and activate its virulence in the environment, [ 5 , 13 ] which consequently increases the risk of hosts becoming victims of mumps infection.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, in warm weather, children tend to have more outdoor activities, which may increase the risk of infection. [ 15 , 16 ]…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters

Lin

Peng

et al. 2021

Medicine

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Mumps is an acute and common childhood disease caused by paramyxovirus. It has been reported that the occurrence of mumps is influenced by seasonality. However, the role of meteorological variables in the incidence of mumps remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps infection. Poisson regression analysis was used to study the relationship between weather variability and the incidence of mumps in Taiwan. Between 2012 and 2018, 5459 cases of mumps cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan (Taiwan CDC). The occurrence of mumps virus infections revealed significant seasonality in the spring and summer seasons in Taiwan. The incidence of mumps virus infections began to increase at temperatures of 15°C and started to decline if the temperature was higher than 29°C ( r 2 = 0.387, P = .008). Similarly, the number of mumps cases began to increase at a relative humidity of 65% to 69% ( r 2 = 0.838, P < .029). The number of mumps cases was positively associated with temperature and relative humidity during the period preceding the infection. This study showed that the occurrence of mumps is significantly associated with increasing temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as early warning signals and indicate the need to strengthen the intervention and prevention of mumps.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters

Lin

Peng

et al. 2021

Medicine

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“…The incidence of mumps in China dropped significantly after implementing the Mumps Vaccine (MuCV) [ 3 , 4 ]. However, there still have been outbreaks or increased incidence of mumps [ 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 ]. For example, in Shandong Province, China, the incidence of mumps increased significantly in 2012 and 2013, reaching 25.33/100,000 and 24.45/100,000 respectively [ 11 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Relationship between Mumps and Meteorological Factors in Shandong Province, China Based on a Two-Stage Model

Zhu

Zhang

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Background: Small-scale studies have identified temperature and other meteorological factors as risk factors for human health. However, only a few have quantified the specific impact of meteorological factors on mumps. A quantitative examination of the exposure–response relationship between meteorological factors and mumps is needed to provide new insights for multi-city analysis. Methods: The daily recorded number of mumps cases and meteorological data in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2009 to 2017 were collected. A two-stage model was built to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps. Results: A total of 104,685 cases of mumps were recorded from 2009 to 2017. After controlling for seasonality and long-term trends, the effect of low temperature on mumps was significant at the provincial level, with a cumulative RR of 1.035 (95%CI: 1.002–1.069) with a 1-day lagged effect. The proportion of primary and middle school students was determined as an effect modifier, which had a significant impact on mumps (Stat = 8.374, p = 0.039). There was heterogeneity in the combined effect of temperature on mumps (Q = 95.447, p = 0.000), and its size was I2 = 49.7%. Conclusions: We have identified a non-linear relationship between mumps and temperature in Shandong Province. In particular, low temperatures could bring more cases of mumps, with certain lagged effects. More public health measures should be taken to reduce the risks when temperatures are low, especially for cities with a high proportion of primary and secondary school students.

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“…What's more, the non-linear relationships were also complex. In our studies included, several types were found, such as inverse “S” 46 , inverse “V” 49 , 51 , “V” 50 , and even “M” 50 , et al However, in our study, based on the information provided in the included studies, we only obtained the main part result, such as only “V” part of “M” shape.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Meta-analysis of the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on the risk of mumps

Wang¹,

Wang

Rao³

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Many studies have shown that the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and mumps has been highlighted. However, these studies showed inconsistent results. Therefore, the goal of our study is to conduct a meta-analysis to clarify this relationship and to quantify the size of these effects as well as the potential factors. Systematic literature researches on PubMed, Embase.com, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane library, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database (CBM) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were performed up to February 7, 2022 for articles analyzing the relationships between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. Eligibility assessment and data extraction were conducted independently by two researchers, and meta-analysis was performed to synthesize these data. We also assessed sources of heterogeneity by study region, regional climate, study population. Finally, a total of 14 studies were screened out from 1154 records and identified to estimate the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. It was found that per 1 °C increase and decrease in the ambient temperature were significantly associated with increased incidence of mumps with RR of 1.0191 (95% CI: 1.0129–1.0252, I2 = 92.0%, Egger’s test P = 0.001, N = 13) for per 1 °C increase and 1.0244 (95% CI: 1.0130–1.0359, I2 = 86.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.077, N = 9) for per 1 °C decrease. As to relative humidity, only high effect of relative humidity was slightly significant (for per 1 unit increase with RR of 1.0088 (95% CI: 1.0027–1.0150), I2 = 72.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.159, N = 9). Subgroup analysis showed that regional climate with temperate areas may have a higher risk of incidence of mumps than areas with subtropical climate in cold effect of ambient temperature and low effect of relative humidity. In addition, meta-regression analysis showed that regional climate may affect the association between incidence of mumps and cold effect of ambient temperature. Our results suggest ambient temperature could affect the incidence of mumps significantly, of which both hot and cold effect of ambient temperature may increase the incidence of mumps. Further studies are still needed to clarify the relationship between the incidence of mumps and ambient temperature outside of east Asia, and many other meteorological factors. These results of ambient temperature are important for establishing preventive measures on mumps, especially in temperate areas. The policy-makers should pay more attention to ambient temperature changes and take protective measures in advance.

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The role of meteorological factors on mumps incidence among children in Guangzhou, Southern China

Cited by 13 publications

References 42 publications

The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters

The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters

Exploring the Relationship between Mumps and Meteorological Factors in Shandong Province, China Based on a Two-Stage Model

Meta-analysis of the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on the risk of mumps

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