The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts

Harmsen, Mathijs; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Château, Jean; Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Drouet, Laurent; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gernaat, David; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Hilaire, Jérôme; Keramidas, Kimon; Luderer, Gunnar; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Sano, Fuminori; Smith, Steve; Wada, Kazumi

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02437-2

Cited by 61 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The remaining non-CO 2 emissions in 2100 in the 2.6 W/m 2 scenario predominantly come from agricultural sources (82% of the total non-CO 2 ) emissions, which is in line with projections based on older MAC curves (Gernaat et al, 2015;Harmsen et al, 2018). The largest emission sources are CH 4 from enteric fermentation (33% of total non-CO 2 ) emissions followed by N 2 O from fertilizer application (24%).…”

Section: Use In Long-term Mitigation Scenariossupporting

confidence: 79%

Long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Harmsen

Vuuren

Nayak

et al. 2019

Environmental Science & Policy

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This study presents a new comprehensive set of long-term Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves of all major non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emission sources. The work builds on existing short-term MAC curve datasets and recent literature on individual mitigation measures. The new MAC curves include current technology and costs information as well as estimates of technology development and removal of implementation barriers to capture long-term dynamics. Compared to earlier work, we find a higher projected maximum reduction potential (MRP) of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and a lower MRP of methane (CH 4). The combined MRP for all non-CO 2 gases is similar but has been extended to also capture mitigation measures that can be realized at higher implementation costs. When applying the new MAC curves in a cost-optimal, integrated assessment model-based 2.6 W/m 2 scenario, the total non-CO 2 mitigation is projected to be 10.9 Mt CO 2 equivalents in 2050 (i.e. 58% reduction compared to baseline emissions) and 15.6 Mt CO 2 equivalents in 2100 (i.e. a 71% reduction). In applying the new MAC curves, we account for inertia in thline implementation speed of mitigation measures. Although this does not strongly impact results in an optimal strategy, it means that the contribution of non-CO 2 mitigation could be more limited if ambitious climate policy is delayed.

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Section: Use In Long-term Mitigation Scenariossupporting

confidence: 79%

Long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Harmsen

Vuuren

Nayak

et al. 2019

Environmental Science & Policy

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“…This is particularly true for methane. As noted in Harmsen et al (2019a), there is a range of~150 Mt in global methane emissions between models in both 2050 and 2100 even under strong methane mitigation assumptions. Lower methane emissions would both lower near-term climate change and also increase the allowable long-term carbon budget (Rogelj et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Models participating in the EMF-30 exercise implemented a wide range of scenarios, some of which are more fully explored in other papers in this special issue (Harmsen et al 2019a). Each model first produces a reference scenario, generally following socio-economic assumptions similar to the SSP2 storyline (O'Neill et al 2017), representing future conditions without additional climate policies.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

et al. 2020

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The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

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“…These models have been previously used in energy and climate policy research, as described for instance by Krey et al (2019), Riahi et al (2017), Luderer et al (2017), Kriegler et al (2014Kriegler et al ( , 2015, Tavoni et al (2015) andVan Vuuren et al (2011). More information can be found in Supplementary Information and is presented in Harmsen et al (2019bHarmsen et al ( , 2019c. Other studies in the EMF-30 exercise include Harmsen et al (2019a), Smith et al (2019), Rauner et al (2019) and Chantret et al (2019).…”

Section: Sectoral Air Quality Co-benefits: Multi-model Ensemblementioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying air quality co-benefits of climate policy across sectors and regions

et al. 2020

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The overlap in sources of greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions creates scope for policy measures to limit global warming and improve air quality simultaneously. In a first step, we derive estimates for the air pollution mortality-related component of the social cost of atmospheric release for 6 pollutants and 56 regions in the world. Combining these estimates with emission inventory data highlights that sector contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution health impacts differ widely across regions. Next, simulations of future emission pathways consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets illustrate that strengthening climate policy ambition raises the total value of air quality co-benefits despite lower marginal co-benefits per tonne of greenhouse gas emissions abated. Finally, we use results from a multimodel ensemble to quantify and compare the value of health-related ambient air quality cobenefits of climate policy across sectors and regions. On the global level, overall air quality cobenefits range from $8 to $40 per tonne of greenhouse gases abated in 2030, with median across models and scenarios of $18/tCO 2 e. These results mask strong differentiation across regions and sectors, with median co-benefits from mitigation in the residential and service sectors in India exceeding $500/tCO 2 e. By taking a sector-and region-specific perspective, the results presented here reveal promising channels to improve human health outcomes and to ratchet up greenhouse gas reduction efforts to bridge the gap between countries' pledges and the global targets of the Paris Agreement.

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The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts

Cited by 61 publications

References 21 publications

Long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

Quantifying air quality co-benefits of climate policy across sectors and regions

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