The Role of Objective and Subjective Data in Predicting Undiscovered Amounts of Oil and Gas in Virgin or Immature Basins

Abstract

Where these models have been applied, they have Discoveryprocessmodels-we used to predictdrilling enhancedexploration/lease posit ion evaluation, basin successratesand field.>, ZPS for a developing basin." risk analysis evaluation,and alternativeenergyThe earliest attempts at these predictionsrelied supply determination.However,they have not found eitheron historical data (objective models)or on the generalapplication in the oil industry. development team's "feel" for the basin (subjective models ). Recentlymodels have been developedwhich This paper reviewsseveralof the models which have are more rigorousthan theseearliermodels. However, beendevelopedand indicates theirlimitations.A new thesemodelshave not foundgeneralusagebecausethey model is then developedbased on several of these 0149 are not applicable duringthe earlylife of the basin models vhich overcomes most of these and because they~re highly data intensive. A new limitations,It has been successfully appliedto both modelhas been developed which is basedon thesenewer a matureand an immaturshorizonin the GreaterGreen RiverBasin. modelsbut which is applicable duringthe entirelife Predictions have been made of the future of the ba~in and which is more flexiblein its data fielddiscoverysizes per incremental drillingeffort requireme,,~s. The model is appliedto both a mature in both horizons. and an immatu,'e horizon in the GreaterGreen River Basin. Definitions 3. How easilycan the questionsin (1) and (2) above 2. Energysource (primary, secon~'.try) be adjusted for changing ?, Economic(present cost lev,-l, specified cubt level, economic and/or technologicalclimates and as new information irrelevant cost level) becomesavailable. 4. Technological (currently feasible, indicated feasibility, infeasible -References and illustrations at end of paper.