The role of oil prices on the Russian business cycle

Pönkä, Harri; Zheng, Yi

doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.04.011

Cited by 20 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…This indicator has the most significant impact on exchange rate dynamics in Azerbaijan. Fluctuations in commodity prices and export volumes are one of the primary sources of macroeconomic volatility in resource-based economies (Pönkä & Zheng, 2019) The macroeconomic factor is associated with a decrease in the country's investment attractiveness (due to a reduction in GDP per capita, rising unemployment, a decline in real personal incomes, and decreased purchasing activity due to inflation). The decrease in remittances creates a threat of devaluation of the Azerbaijani manat due to the outflow of foreign currency in the form of remittances from the country.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exchange rate regime in a crisis: The case of Azerbaijan

Samedova

Vitaly

Aliyeva

et al. 2022

JEECAR

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This study aims to substantiate the practicality of establishing a fixed exchange rate (FER) under external shocks to the Azerbaijani economy. Using regression analysis, principal component analysis, and the Granger causality test, we substantiated the inexpediency of a fixed FER for the manat (the national currency) due to: the ineffective fiscal and monetary policy of the state, weak integration into the U.S. economy, distrust of the manat in the population, and the weakness of currency hedging. Artificial retention of a FER will lead to devaluation and chronic economic recession (inflation growth, a decrease in real incomes of the population, a reduction of GDP per capita, and an increase in unemployment). It is substantiated that an increase in public confidence in the national currency should become the basis for the transition to a floating exchange rate (FER) for the manat as it will help to get the actual value of the manat.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exchange rate regime in a crisis: The case of Azerbaijan

Samedova

Vitaly

Aliyeva

et al. 2022

JEECAR

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“…Further, Figure 1 presents time varying history of oil and gas prices from 2006 to 2019, in-line with the sample period of our study. Since, oil price is considered a core determinant of economic growth (Dagher and El Hariri, 2013), and higher oil prices leads to economic recessions (Hamilton, 1983;Pönkä and Zheng, 2019). Therefore, it is crucial to observe the state and network structures of world energy companies during the time periods of 2008 and 2011, respectively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining Network Structures and Dynamics of World Energy Companies in Stock Markets: A Complex Network Approach

Memon

Tahir

2021

IJEEP

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The energy sector occupies a mainstay role in overall growth in the modern worldwide economy. Therefore, it is essential to examine network structures and dynamics of leading energy companies of the world through complex network methods. Because, complex network methods are significant tools of studying the static and dynamics properties of the stock market, which allows us to better comprehend the stock market. We use daily prices of 147 energy stocks belonging to 34 countries of the world from 2006-2019. In addition to the overall sample, we explore networks for two sub-periods to examine the topological evolution during global recession of 2008, and energy and European debt crisis of 2011. Our results show substantial clustering of energy companies based on their geographic position during overall sample period. However, the crisis periods lead to a break in Asian and European clusters and only one prominent cluster appears in all the periods belonging to North American energy companies. We also observe few top US and European based companies occupying important and great global influence positions in the networks. In addition, time-varying topological measures indicate contraction of networks during crisis time, and an expansion in the recovery periods. More implications are also discussed.

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“…Additionally, there is a significant effect of energy costs on macro-economic variables (Taghizadeh-hesary et al, 2015), energy insecurity also has great effect on finish goods and food prices (Taghizadeh-hesary et al, 2019). Energy price shocks influencing different macroeconomic factors i.e., GDP, rate of interest, rate of inflation, foreign exchange rate, human development, stock and bond prices, portfolio optimization and business cycle (Ahmed et al, 2018;Marza & Daly, 2018;Naser, 2019;Nazlioglu et al, 2019;Pönkä & Zheng, 2019;S. Sarwar et al, 2019;Waheed et al, 2018;Wesseh & Lin, 2018).…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Do the electricity price shocks influence the Sectoral Production and KSE100 Index in Pakistan? An ARDL structural breaks approach

Khan

2021

JAEBS

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This research investigates the long-term cointegration of electricity price with sectoral production and equity market in Pakistan. Fourteen major industrial sectors and the KSE100 index is taken into consideration to determine the relationship. Literature in this regard is available but this research is distinct from previous literature for it tests the sectoral production and equity market relationship with electricity price change in Pakistan. Monthly data from 1st Jan 2011 till 31st Dec 2019 is taken for fourteen sectors from the sources of Quantum Index Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and for KSE100 index from (www.investing.com). An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and bound test for multiple structural breaks has been applied. It is found that almost the production of all industrial sectors and KSE100 index stock prices are adversely affected by the electricity price shocks both in long-term and short-term. The study suggests that management should implement a moderate monitory policy that is neither more expansionary nor contractionary. The government should provide incentives to those who successfully control energy wastage. A mixed kind of energy policy is recommended with higher weightage to the development of renewable energies to reduce foreign exchange outflow with imported furnace oil. This study is limited to the sectoral production and equity market of Pakistan. A cross-sectional research is encouraged to compare the connection between major energy costs and macroeconomic variables in different countries.

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The role of oil prices on the Russian business cycle

Cited by 20 publications

References 30 publications

Exchange rate regime in a crisis: The case of Azerbaijan

Exchange rate regime in a crisis: The case of Azerbaijan

Examining Network Structures and Dynamics of World Energy Companies in Stock Markets: A Complex Network Approach

Do the electricity price shocks influence the Sectoral Production and KSE100 Index in Pakistan? An ARDL structural breaks approach

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