The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza

Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco

doi:10.1098/rspb.2009.1605

Cited by 261 publications

(258 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Another important feature that is needed to decipher the impact of demographic transition and immunization programmes, but that is missing in this model, is the spatial structure. Accounting for differences in population density [10] and patterns of human mobility [33][34][35] could help to explain large regional differences in terms of case incidence and average age at infection. However, retrieving longitudinal/historical mobility data to determine the strength of the connections between spatially distinct populations is a very hard task.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy

Merler

Ajelli

2014

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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In Italy, during the course of the past century to the present-day, measles incidence underwent a remarkable decreasing trend that started well before the introduction of the national immunization programme. In this work, we aim at examining to what extent both the demographic transition, characterized by declining mortality and fertility rates over time, and the vaccination programme are responsible for the observed epidemiological pattern. Making use of a non-stationary, age-structured disease transmission model, we show that in the pre-vaccination era, from 1901 to 1982, the decline in birth rates has resulted in a drastic decrease in the effective transmission rate, which in turn has determined a declining trend of measles incidence (from 25.2 to 10.3 infections per 1000 individuals). However, since 1983, vaccination appears to have become the major contributing factor in the decrease of measles incidence, which otherwise would have remained stable as a consequence of the nearly constant birth rates. This led to a remarkable decrease in the effective transmission rate, to a level well below the critical threshold for disease persistence. These findings call for the adoption of epidemiological models, which deviate the age structure from stationary equilibrium solutions, to better understand the biology of infectious diseases and evaluate immunization programmes.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy

Merler

Ajelli

2014

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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“…This suggests that cities with different mobility patterns may also differ in the rate at which their inhabitants have infectious contact, leading to variation among cities in the risk of an epidemic [5][6][7]. Human movement patterns are heterogeneous at a wide range of scales-from within a building [8] to among countries [9][10][11], as evidenced by diverse sources of data, including the movements of mobile phone users [12,13], air travel patterns [9][10][11] and census data on commuting patterns [10,14,15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Individual variation in rates of infectious contact can significantly alter patterns of disease spread [6,7,15,[19][20][21] and theoretical models of disease dynamics within and among cities (both individual-based simulations [5,7,10,15,[22][23][24] and metapopulation models [10,11,14,15,[25][26][27]) have shown that heterogeneous contact patterns are potentially important in determining urban epidemic dynamics. However, few studies have examined whether empirical variation in intracity mobility patterns is sufficient to drive detectable differences in epidemic dynamics among cities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human mobility patterns predict divergent epidemic dynamics among cities

2013

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The epidemic dynamics of infectious diseases vary among cities, but it is unclear how this is caused by patterns of infectious contact among individuals. Here, we ask whether systematic differences in human mobility patterns are sufficient to cause inter-city variation in epidemic dynamics for infectious diseases spread by casual contact between hosts. We analyse census data on the mobility patterns of every full-time worker in 48 Canadian cities, finding a power-law relationship between population size and the level of organization in mobility patterns, where in larger cities, a greater fraction of workers travel to work in a few focal locations. Similarly sized cities also vary in the level of organization in their mobility patterns, equivalent on average to the variation expected from a 2.64-fold change in population size. Systematic variation in mobility patterns is sufficient to cause significant differences among cities in infectious disease dynamics—even among cities of the same size—according to an individual-based model of airborne pathogen transmission parametrized with the mobility data. This suggests that differences among cities in host contact patterns are sufficient to drive differences in infectious disease dynamics and provides a framework for testing the effects of host mobility patterns in city-level disease data.

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“…Figure 3 shows the complete cycle of influenza infection and defines the incubation period. In general, because influenza viruses are transmitted through air, speaking, coughing or sneezing, once a person is infected, the incubation period is short, approximately 1-3 days [19][20][21][22][23]. The onset of clinical symptoms can also be after approximately 7 days.…”

Section: Influenza Investigationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Rapid Screening Test for the Diagnosis of Influenza Infection Incubation Period Using Coincidence Analysis of Pulse Waves

Chen¹,

Tu²,

Yu³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Viral infections have long been the biggest threat to human survival, and from a medical perspective, the development of noninvasive high-throughput screening methods that target the incubation period to either treat diseases or limit viral spread would be strikingly effective. Using this technology to target viral incubation periods would also be inexpensive to perform. The current study proposes to transform pulse signals into a rapid diagnostic test using "coincidence analysis" in the hope of preventing or reducing the symptoms of viral infections.The heart plays a critical role in calculating and supplying the needs of all tissues of the body. Pulse waves are pressurized signals in response to heart's calculations and include all phases of the cardiac cycle, which maintains life and provides energy needed to perform tasks. Any small movement gives a corresponding signal to pulse waves. The current study investigated conclusive data on self-limiting infections, such as common cold. We used pulse wave, coincidence analysis technology to capture signals from individuals with common cold during the incubation period and investigated if particular characteristic signals could be applied to influenza during the incubation period. Preliminary work demonstrated that pulse waves could generate signals using this technology that would be worthwhile for future research.A small amount of analytical data from common cold existed previously. The data structure is based on the idea that a single pulse wave at differing physiological conditions would have slight modifications that would be amplified and presented by various geometrical shapes after extensive data are accumulated. These geometric shapes can then be sliced vertically or horizontally to extract data during different illness stages.The significance of these findings are impressive; from a personal or a public hygiene perspective, this analytical technology provides many benefits, such as rapid and precise decision-making that can be directly visualized or can be analyzed using software programs. Also, this technology also uses futuristic wearable technology that brings practical problem solving to physiology.

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The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza

Cited by 261 publications

References 23 publications

Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy

Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy

Human mobility patterns predict divergent epidemic dynamics among cities

A Rapid Screening Test for the Diagnosis of Influenza Infection Incubation Period Using Coincidence Analysis of Pulse Waves

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