The Role of Provenance for the Projected Growth of Juvenile European Beech under Climate Change

Abstract

European beech is one of the most common tree species in Europe and is generally suggested to play even more of a prominent role in forestry in the future. It seems to have the potential to partially replace Norway spruce, as it is less sensitive to expected warmer and drier conditions. It is, however, not well known in which regions these new plantings would be particularly favourable and if specific provenances may be better adapted to the new conditions than others. Therefore, we estimated the potential early height growth under climate conditions in 2040–2060 for 20 beech provenances across a region covering the Czech Republic and Slovakia. This Central European region is expected to experience considerably drier and warmer conditions in the future. For this exercise, we implemented a new neural network model developed from height growth information obtained from the open-access BeechCOSTe52 database. The simulations are driven by past and future climate data obtained from the WorldClim database of historical climate data and future climate projections. Simulations revealed that provenances originating from drier regions performed on average significantly better than those from regions with good water supply. Moreover, provenances originating from drier regions had a particularly large advantage in the relatively arid regions of Central Czechia and Southern Slovakia. We can also confirm that all provenances showed a high phenotypic plasticity of height growth across the whole investigated region.

Climatic Stress Test of Scots Pine Provenances in Northeastern Europe Reveals High Phenotypic Plasticity and Quasi-Linear Response to Warming

“…The cessation of growth is less fixed and is related to the joint effect of photoperiod and temperature [36]. Similar phenomena have been found not only in conifers, such as the Norway spruce [46] and silver fir [47], but also in broadleaved species, such as beech [48,49] or sessile oak [30,50].…”

Effects of Drought, Phosphorus Fertilization and Provenance on the Growth of Common Beech and Sessile Oak

“…For this reason, scientists and forestry experts invest a lot of effort in finding appropriate solutions to mitigate the negative impact of drought on the growth of forest trees and the survival of entire forest ecosystems. One way to mitigate the negative impact of drought on the growth and vitality of forest trees is the selection of more drought-tolerant genotypes and/or provenances [13]. Common beech and sessile oak provenances often show differentiation in physiological or morphological traits, which are conditioned by their adaptation to specific local habitat conditions [14][15][16].…”

Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index Approach for Drought Assessment in Slovakia—Statistical Evaluation of Different Calculations

“…Drought also creates suitable conditions for the increased occurrence of certain pests and diseases, such as bark beetles and wood-decay fungus. It can also lead to shifts in the ranges of specific tree species toward higher altitudes or the replacement of less adaptable species with more resilient ones [11,12]. Grasslands, which can act as hotspots of biodiversity in landscapes dominated by agriculture, are also one of the ecosystems threatened by drought.…”